永安期货有色早报-20250801

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - Copper: The current weak demand is due to the downstream off - season and weakened trans - shipment motivation. After August, the balance will be relatively tight. The annual apparent demand is expected to be in the range of 4.8% - 5.5%. Maintain a short - term cautious but long - term bullish view on Shanghai copper, and consider building virtual inventory in the third quarter [1]. - Aluminum: Supply has a slight increase, and the demand in August is in the seasonal off - season. There is a small inventory build - up in July and is expected to continue in August. Pay attention to demand and consider inter - month and domestic - foreign reverse arbitrage under the low - inventory pattern [2]. - Zinc: Zinc prices fluctuated narrowly this week. Supply is expected to increase, while domestic demand is seasonally weak and overseas demand is also weak. Suggest short - term observation, holding domestic - foreign positive arbitrage, and paying attention to inter - month positive arbitrage opportunities [5]. - Nickel: Supply of pure nickel remains high, demand is weak, and inventories are stable. Continue to pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [6]. - Stainless Steel: Supply has partial passive production cuts, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventories have a slight reduction. Pay attention to policy trends [7]. - Lead: Lead prices had a slight correction this week. Supply is expected to increase slightly in July, demand has improved but still has inventory build - up. It is expected to oscillate between 16800 - 17500 next week [9]. - Tin: Tin prices fluctuated widely this week. Supply may decline slightly in July - August, demand is weak, and domestic inventory is rising. Suggest short - term observation or short - selling at high prices [12]. - Industrial Silicon: The production of industrial silicon decreased in July. If the operating rate of Hesheng does not recover significantly, the market will oscillate; if the复产 of Hesheng and southwest regions accelerates, the market will be in surplus and prices will oscillate weakly [15]. - Lithium Carbonate: The current fundamentals of lithium carbonate are strong in both supply and demand, with significant inventory pressure in the intermediate links. The trading focus has shifted to potential supply disruptions. In the long - term, if the supply disruptions are resolved, the over - capacity pattern remains [17]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - Price and Inventory Data: From July 25 - 31, the spot premium of Shanghai copper changed by 0, the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 1350 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 2400 tons [1]. - Market Analysis: The weak demand is due to the off - season and trans - shipment factors. The annual apparent demand is expected to be 4.8% - 5.5%. The price below 78,000 is the psychological price for industrial restocking [1]. Aluminum - Price and Inventory Data: From July 25 - 31, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 80 yuan/ton, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange remained unchanged [1]. - Market Analysis: Supply increased slightly, demand in August is in the off - season, and inventory is expected to continue to build up slightly [2]. Zinc - Price and Inventory Data: From July 25 - 31, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 380 yuan/ton, the domestic social inventory remained unchanged, and the LME inventory decreased by 4250 tons [5]. - Market Analysis: Supply is expected to increase, domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand is also weak. Suggest short - term observation and relevant arbitrage strategies [5]. Nickel - Price and Inventory Data: From July 25 - 31, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 1900 yuan/ton, and the LME inventory increased by 600 tons [6]. - Market Analysis: Supply of pure nickel remains high, demand is weak, and inventories are stable [6]. Stainless Steel - Price and Inventory Data: From July 25 - 31, the prices of 304 cold - rolled, 304 hot - rolled, etc. remained unchanged [6]. - Market Analysis: Supply has partial passive production cuts, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventories have a slight reduction [7]. Lead - Price and Inventory Data: From July 25 - 31, the spot premium of lead changed by 0, and the LME inventory increased by 125 tons [8]. - Market Analysis: Supply is expected to increase slightly in July, demand has improved but still has inventory build - up. It is expected to oscillate between 16800 - 17500 next week [9]. Tin - Price and Inventory Data: From July 25 - 31, the LME inventory of tin remained unchanged at 1945 tons [12]. - Market Analysis: Supply may decline slightly in July - August, demand is weak, and domestic inventory is rising. Suggest short - term observation or short - selling at high prices [12]. Industrial Silicon - Price and Inventory Data: From July 25 - 30, the 421 Yunnan basis and other data changed, and the total production decreased in July [15]. - Market Analysis: If the operating rate of Hesheng does not recover significantly, the market will oscillate; if the复产 of Hesheng and southwest regions accelerates, the market will be in surplus and prices will oscillate weakly [15]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Inventory Data: From July 25 - 31, the SMM electric carbon price decreased by 950 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 7586 [17]. - Market Analysis: The current fundamentals are strong in both supply and demand, with significant inventory pressure in the intermediate links. The trading focus has shifted to potential supply disruptions. In the long - term, if the supply disruptions are resolved, the over - capacity pattern remains [17].