Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The 25/26 global sugar market is expected to shift from shortage to surplus, but there are differences in institutional forecasts. The 09 contract is approaching delivery, and attention should be paid to the basis regression. The main contract is about to switch to the 01 contract, and support around 5600 for the 01 contract should be monitored [5][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review No relevant information provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: StoneX has revised down the global sugar market surplus for the 25/26 season by 700,000 tons to 3.04 million tons. As of the end of May 2025, the cumulative sugar production in China for the 24/25 season was 11.1621 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons, with a sales rate of 72.69% (66.17% in the same period last year). In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 390,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,700 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 103,200 tons. The overall situation is neutral [5]. - Basis: The spot price in Liuzhou is 6,100 yuan, with a basis of 445 yuan (for the 01 contract), indicating a premium over the futures price, which is a bullish signal [5]. - Inventory: As of the end of May, the industrial inventory for the 24/25 sugar season was 3.0483 million tons, which is bullish [5]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [5]. - Main Position: The net short position is decreasing, but the main position trend is still bearish [5]. - Expectation: The 09 contract is approaching delivery, and attention should be paid to the basis regression. The main contract is about to switch to the 01 contract, and support around 5600 for the 01 contract should be monitored [5][8]. 3.3 Today's Focus No relevant information provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Global Sugar Supply and Demand Forecast for 25/26: Global production is expected to reach 202 million tons, a record - high second, mainly driven by Brazil, India, and Thailand. Global consumption is expected to be 198 million tons, with Asia's demand growing by 1.3% and Africa having the fastest growth rate at 2.2%. There will be a surplus of 2.7 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is between 52% - 54%. The global trade volume is expected to be 62 million tons, with Brazil's exports accounting for over 50% and Thailand's exports returning to a high level [35]. - Institutional Forecasts for 2025/26: USDA predicts a surplus of 11.397 million tons (doubling year - on - year), Datagro predicts a surplus of 2.58 million tons, ISO predicts a shift from a shortage of 4.88 million tons in 24/25 to a possible surplus in 25/26, and StoneX predicts a global production increase of 3.3 million tons and a surplus of 4.3 million tons [38]. - China's Sugar Industry Data: The sugarcane and beet planting and harvesting areas, sugar production, import, consumption, and price data from 2023/24 to 2025/26 are provided, showing relatively stable trends in various indicators [40]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant information provided.
大越期货白糖早报-20250801
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-08-01 01:32