大越期货豆粕早报-20250801

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The soybean market in the US is experiencing a downward trend due to favorable weather conditions in the soybean - growing regions and is expected to fluctuate around the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on soybean planting, growth, import arrivals, and the progress of China - US tariff negotiations [8][10][12]. - The domestic soybean market is also on a downward trend, influenced by the US soybean market, increased import arrivals, and expectations of a domestic soybean harvest. It is affected by the interaction between the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and the expected increase in imported soybean arrivals [10]. - The domestic soybean meal market is in a narrow - range oscillation. With high import arrivals in July, weak spot prices, and an increase in oil - mill soybean meal inventories, it may return to a range - bound pattern in the short term [8][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - For soybean meal M2509, it is expected to oscillate between 2960 and 3020. The market is neutral, with a negative basis, increasing inventories, a bullish trend on the chart, and a bullish signal from the main positions. The US soybean - growing weather and China - US tariff negotiations are the main factors affecting the market [8]. - For soybean A2509, it is expected to oscillate between 4080 and 4180. The market is neutral, with a positive basis, increasing inventories, a neutral chart trend, and a bearish signal from the main positions. The cost of imported soybeans and domestic demand support the bottom, while increased imports and domestic harvest expectations limit the upside [10]. 2. Recent News - The progress of China - US tariff negotiations is uncertain in the short term. With favorable weather for US soybean planting, the US market is in a downward trend and is expected to oscillate around the 1000 - point mark [12]. - The volume of imported soybeans in China remained high in July. Oil - mill soybean meal inventories continued to rise, and the Ministry of Agriculture promoted a reduction in protein content in feed formulations, causing soybean meal prices to rise and then fall [12]. - Reduced profits in domestic pig farming have led to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal has weakened since May Day, but tight supply supports post - holiday prices. With reduced pressure from the China - US tariff war, soybean meal has entered a weakly oscillating pattern [12]. - Low oil - mill soybean meal inventories in China support short - term price expectations. The possibility of weather speculation in US soybean - growing regions and uncertainties in the China - US tariff war mean that soybean meal will maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [12]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low domestic oil - mill soybean meal inventories, and uncertain weather in US soybean - growing regions [13]. - Bearish factors: High volume of imported soybeans in July, and expectations of a bountiful South American soybean harvest [13]. - Soybeans - Bullish factors: Cost of imported soybeans supports the domestic market, and expected increased domestic demand supports prices [14]. - Bearish factors: Expectations of a bountiful Brazilian soybean harvest and increased Chinese purchases, as well as expected domestic soybean harvest [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data: From July 22 to July 31, the average transaction price and volume of soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal also showed small fluctuations [15]. - Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices: From July 23 to July 31, the prices of soybean and meal futures and spot prices fluctuated. The spot price of soybean meal was relatively stable, with a high level of spot discount [17][22]. - Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics: From July 21 to July 31, the number of warehouse receipts for soybeans and soybean meal decreased [19]. - Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets: Provide historical data on global and domestic soybean supply - demand balances, including harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory [30][31]. - Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress in Argentina, the US, and Brazil: Provide data on the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina, the US, and Brazil in different periods [32][33][37]. - USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports: Provide data on the harvest area, yield, output, and other aspects of soybeans in the US in the past six months [40]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided.