贵金属早报-20250801

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For gold, on August 1st, with the approaching tariff deadline and a concentration of important events and data, the slight increase in risk aversion sentiment provides some support, leading to a small rebound in gold prices. However, since the agreements among major trading economies are mostly settled, the impetus from risk aversion is limited, and there is still downward pressure on gold prices [4]. - For silver, affected by the sharp decline in New York copper and the downturn in domestic commodities, risk appetite has decreased, causing silver prices to drop significantly. Although there is some support, with the approaching tariff deadline and the release of US non - farm data, and the agreements among major trading economies mostly settled, the downward pressure on silver prices remains [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - Gold: The US three major stock indexes and European major stock indexes all closed down. The 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 0.20 basis points to 4.366%. The US dollar index dropped 0.02% to 100.04. The offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures fell 0.31% to $3342.30 per ounce [4]. - Silver: Commodities mostly turned down, and silver prices dropped significantly. The same situation as gold occurred in the stock market, US Treasury yields, and the US dollar index. COMEX silver futures fell 2.51% to $36.79 per ounce [5]. 3.2 Daily Tips - Gold: The basis is - 3.75, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 2199 kilograms to 35643 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below it. The main net position is long, but the main long positions are decreasing [4]. - Silver: The basis is - 29, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 61 kilograms to 1208033 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is below it. The main net position is long, but the main long positions are decreasing [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus - 07:30 Japan's June unemployment rate; 08:00 South Korea's July exports and imports; 08:30 Vietnam, South Korea, and Japan's July manufacturing PMI; TBD Hong Kong's "Stablecoin Ordinance" implementation; 09:45 China's July RatingDog China PMI; TBD Trump's so - called "reciprocal tariff" and 50% import copper tariff effective date; 13:00 India's July manufacturing PMI final value; 15:50 France's July manufacturing PMI final value; 15:55 Germany's July manufacturing PMI final value; 16:00 Eurozone's July manufacturing PMI final value; 16:30 UK's July manufacturing PMI final value; 17:00 Eurozone's July CPI preliminary value; 20:30 US July non - farm payroll report; 21:45 US July Markit manufacturing PMI final value; 22:00 US July ISM manufacturing index, July University of Michigan consumer confidence index final value, June construction spending; Sunday OPEC + holds a separate meeting to decide on production policy [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Gold: The fundamental situation is neutral. The basis shows a neutral signal. The increase in warehouse receipts is a bearish factor, and the position of the K - line relative to the moving average is also bearish. However, the main long - position situation is bullish [4]. - Silver: The fundamental situation is neutral. The basis is neutral. The change in warehouse receipts is neutral, and the position of the K - line relative to the moving average is neutral. The main long - position situation is bullish [5]. 3.5 Position Data - Gold: The main net position is long, but the main long positions are decreasing [4]. - Silver: The main net position is long, but the main long positions are decreasing [5].