Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: August 1, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] LLDPE Analysis Fundamental Factors - Macro: In June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, staying in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May, returning above the critical point. On July 18, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a steady - growth plan for key industries including the petrochemical industry [4]. - Supply - Demand: It's the off - season for agricultural films, and the demand for packaging films has slightly improved. Overall, downstream demand is weak. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7350 (-50), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is 0, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.0%, which is neutral [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 49.1 million tons (-7.2), which is neutral [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish trend [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, showing a bearish trend [4]. - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is oscillating. Driven by the macro steady - growth plan, it's the off - season for agricultural film demand, downstream demand is weak, and industrial inventory is neutral. It is expected that PE will oscillate today [4]. Influential Factors - Bullish: Cost support and macro - policy promotion [6] - Bearish: Weak demand [6] - Main Logic: Cost and demand, driven by domestic macro - policies [6] PP Analysis Fundamental Factors - Macro: Similar to LLDPE, in June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, staying in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May, returning above the critical point. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a steady - growth plan on July 18 [7]. - Supply - Demand: It's the off - season for downstream demand. Affected by high summer temperatures and heavy rainfall, the demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc., is weak. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7150 (-0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7]. - Basis: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 32, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.4%, which is neutral [7]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 56.5 million tons (-1.6), showing a bearish trend [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish trend [7]. - Main Position: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, showing a bearish trend [7]. - Expectation: The PP main contract is oscillating. Driven by the macro steady - growth plan, downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving is weak, and industrial inventory is neutral. It is expected that PP will oscillate today [7]. Influential Factors - Bullish: Cost support and macro - policy promotion [8] - Bearish: Weak demand [8] - Main Logic: Cost and demand, driven by domestic macro - policies [8] Market Data LLDPE - Spot: The price of LLDPE spot delivery products is 7350 (-50), the import US dollar price is 835 (0), the import conversion price is 7386 (7), and the import price difference is -36 (-57) [9]. - Futures: The price of the LLDPE 09 contract is 7350 (-37), the basis is 0 (-13), and the prices of other contracts (L01, L05) also have corresponding changes [9]. - Inventory: The number of LLDPE warehouse receipts is 5816 (0), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 49.1 million tons (-7.2), and the PE social inventory is 56.2 million tons (0.3) [9] PP - Spot: The price of PP spot delivery products is 7150 (0), the import US dollar price is 860 (0), the import conversion price is 7603 (7), and the import price difference is -453 (-7) [9]. - Futures: The price of the PP 09 contract is 7118 (-27), the basis is 32 (27), and the prices of other contracts (PP01, PP05) also have corresponding changes [9]. - Inventory: The number of PP warehouse receipts is 12625 (-70), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 56.5 million tons (-1.6), and the PP social inventory is 27.3 million tons (-0.1) [9] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets Polyethylene - From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, apparent consumption, etc., of polyethylene have shown different trends. For example, the production capacity increased from 1869.5 in 2018 to 3584.5 in 2024, with a growth rate of 12.4% in 2024 compared to the previous year [14]. Polypropylene - From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, apparent consumption, etc., of polypropylene have also changed. The production capacity increased from 2245.5 in 2018 to 4418.5 in 2024, with a growth rate of 13.5% in 2024 compared to the previous year [16]
大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250801
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-08-01 02:17