建信期货多晶硅日报-20250801

1. Report Date - The report is dated August 1, 2025 [2] 2. Research Team - The Energy and Chemical Research Team includes researchers such as Li Jie, CFA (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil), Ren Junchi (PTA/MEG), Peng Haozhou (Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon), Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), and Liu Youran (Pulp) [3] 3. Market Performance and Outlook Market Performance - Polysilicon contracts saw significant declines. The closing price of PS2509 was 49,130 yuan/ton, a drop of 7.81%. The trading volume was 565,838 lots, and the open interest was 126,989 lots, with a net decrease of 37,501 lots [4] Outlook - The exchange has issued frequent position - limit notices to cool down the overheated sentiment, leading to a decline in capital risk appetite. The market is expected to be mainly in wide - range fluctuations. In July, polysilicon supply will increase to 10 - 110,000 tons, and the downstream cell production schedule is around 50GW. Supply and demand maintain a loose balance without a de - stocking drive. The June photovoltaic installation volume (14GW) fulfilled the expectation of weak demand in the second half of the year, and the total terminal demand will drop to around 45GW. Overall, recent price movements share the same causes, with comprehensive costs and spot prices providing rigid support at the bottom, and wide - range fluctuations are the main trend [4] 4. Market News - On July 31, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 3,200 lots, an increase of 130 lots from the previous trading day [5] - In June 2025, China's industrial silicon exports reached 68,300 tons, a month - on - month surge of 23% and a year - on - year increase of 12%, hitting a new high in 18 months. Exports to Southeast Asia accounted for 58%, with Thailand (21,000 tons) and Malaysia (18,000 tons) being the main incremental markets, mainly used for local photovoltaic module production [5] - As of the end of June, the cumulative installed power generation capacity nationwide was 3.65 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.7%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.1 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 54.2%. From January to June, the cumulative photovoltaic installation volume was 212.21GW, a year - on - year increase of 107.07%, but the domestic installation volume in June was only 14GW, showing a significant decline [5]