Group 1: Report General Information - Report Date: August 01, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy Chemical Research Team [3] - Researchers: Li Jie, CFA (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil); Ren Junchi (PTA/MEG); Peng Haozhou (Industrial Silicon/Polycrystalline Silicon); Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins); Liu Youran (Pulp) [3] Group 2: Market Performance and Outlook Market Performance - Industrial silicon futures prices dropped significantly. The closing price of Si2509 was 8,760 yuan/ton, a decline of 6.26%. The trading volume was 410,371 lots, and the open interest was 212,932 lots, with a net decrease of 29,745 lots [4] - Industrial silicon spot prices stabilized. The price of Inner Mongolia 553 was 9,250 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 553 was 8,850 yuan/ton. The price of Inner Mongolia 421 was 9,800 yuan/ton, that of Xinjiang 421 was 9,700 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 421 was 9,950 yuan/ton [4] Market Outlook - The supply - demand relationship has not improved. The resumption of production in the southwest offsets the production cuts of large factories in Xinjiang. The production in July increased to 330,000 tons compared to the forecast. The operating rate of polysilicon increased slightly, and the short - term production increase capacity of organic silicon is limited [4] - The exchange has continuously issued limit notices, and the risk appetite of funds has significantly decreased. A bearish trend has formed on the hourly chart, and the range above 9,000 has become a resistance area. It is expected to continue to fluctuate widely [4] Group 3: Market News - On July 31, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,644 lots, a net increase of 798 lots compared to the previous trading day [5] - The export volume of industrial silicon in June was 68,323 tons. From January to June, the cumulative export volume was 338,900 tons, with an average monthly export volume of 56,500 tons [5] - As of the end of June, the cumulative installed power generation capacity nationwide was 3.65 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.7%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.1 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 54.2%; the installed capacity of wind power was 570 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.7% [5] - From January to June, the average utilization hours of national power generation equipment were 1,504 hours, 162 hours less than the same period last year. In June, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity was only 14.36GW, a year - on - year decrease of 38% and a month - on - month decrease of 85% [5]
建信期货工业硅日报-20250801
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-08-01 02:25