PTA、MEG早报-20250801

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For PTA, due to planned maintenance of some PTA devices in August, the supply - demand outlook is expected to improve. With the significant increase in polyester sales last week and the alleviation of inventory pressure on polyester factories, PTA prices are expected to fluctuate with the cost side in the short term, and the basis will fluctuate within a certain range. Attention should be paid to the macro - commodity atmosphere and the fluctuation of downstream polyester load [5]. - For MEG, last week's concentrated arrivals at the main ports are expected to lead to a moderate increase in visible inventory at the beginning of this week. From a fundamental perspective, the supply - demand of MEG will shift to a tight balance in July - August, which is significantly better than the previous market expectations. Driven by the tightening of the supply side and a good macro - atmosphere, the price center of MEG will tend to be strong in the short term. Attention should be paid to the progress of overseas device recovery [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the given content 2. Daily Tips - PTA: Yesterday, PTA futures fluctuated and declined, the spot market negotiation atmosphere was light, and the spot basis weakened. The mainstream spot basis today is at 09 - 15. The PTA factory inventory is 3.82 days, a decrease of 0.17 days compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is upward, but the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The main position is net short, changing from long to short [6]. - MEG: On Thursday, the price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated and weakened, and the market negotiation was average. During the night session, ethylene glycol was sorted in a narrow range, and a small amount of spot transactions were carried out at a premium of 65 - 68 yuan/ton over the 09 contract. The spot basis strengthened in the afternoon, and spot negotiations were around a premium of 70 - 72 yuan/ton over the 09 contract. In terms of US dollars, the external price center of ethylene glycol weakened slightly. The inventory in the East China region is 42.74 tons, a decrease of 4.14 tons compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average. The main position is net short, and the short position increased [8]. 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the given content 4. Fundamental Data - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Table: It presents the PTA supply - demand situation from January 2024 to December 2025, including PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and other data, as well as changes in inventory and supply - demand gaps [11]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Table: It shows the supply - demand situation of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025, including production rate, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and port inventory data [12]. 5. PTA Daily View - The expected improvement in supply - demand due to planned maintenance in August and the alleviation of polyester factory inventory pressure are positive factors. However, from the demand side, the end of the export rush and the off - season of domestic demand lead to a definite weakening trend in terminal demand [5][9]. 6. MEG Daily View - The short - term price center of MEG is expected to be strong, but attention should be paid to the recovery progress of overseas devices and the impact of weather and ship unloading progress on inventory [8]. 7. Impact Factor Summary - Positive Factors: Planned maintenance of some PTA devices in August, which is expected to improve the supply - demand situation [9]. - Negative Factors: On the demand side, the end of the export rush and the off - season of domestic demand lead to a weakening trend in terminal demand [9]. 8. Current Main Logic and Risk Points - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and when the market rebounds, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [10].