Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of copper are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production, the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, and the manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [2]. - The basis shows a premium of the spot price over the futures price, which is bullish [2]. - Copper inventories had mixed trends on July 31, with an increase in overall inventory but a decrease in SHFE inventory compared to last week, indicating a neutral situation [2]. - The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average which is downward - sloping, suggesting a bearish signal [2]. - The main positions are net long but the long positions are decreasing, which is bullish [2]. - Due to the slowdown of Fed rate cuts, rising inventories, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption in the off - season, copper prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoint - Fundamentals: Mixed factors lead to a neutral assessment of copper fundamentals [2]. - Basis: Spot price of 78535 with a basis of 495, showing a premium over futures, bullish [2]. - Inventory: On July 31, total copper inventory increased by 1350 to 138200 tons, and SHFE copper inventory decreased by 11133 tons to 74423 tons compared to last week, neutral [2]. - Disk: Closing price below the 20 - day moving average with the average moving down, bearish [2]. - Main Positions: Main net long positions but long positions decreasing, bullish [2]. - Expectation: Copper prices to fluctuate and adjust due to multiple factors [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis -利多: Domestic policy easing [3]. -利空: Trade war escalation [3]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight balance [20]. - The China annual supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations from 2018 - 2024, with some years having surpluses and others having deficits [22]. Other Information - Bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [14]. - Processing fees have declined [16].
大越期货沪铜早报-20250801
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-08-01 02:22