大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20250801

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market shows a situation of supply exceeding demand, with the downward trend difficult to change due to capacity mismatch. The 2509 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 66,740 - 69,820. It is predicted that the demand will strengthen next month, inventory may be reduced, and the supply - surplus situation will intensify [8]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' production suspension and reduction plans, a month - on - month decrease in the amount of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors are the continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [9][10]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply Side: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 18,630 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.53%, higher than the historical average. The predicted production for next month is 81,150 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.57%, also higher than the historical average. The 6% spodumene CIF price decreased daily and is lower than the historical average [8]. - Demand Side: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 93,672 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.27%, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 16,552 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.40%. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month [8]. - Cost Side: The cost of imported spodumene concentrate is 68,893 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 0.87%, with a production profit of 2,075 yuan/ton; the cost of imported lepidolite is 76,215 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 0.75%, with a production loss of 7,136 yuan/ton. The cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, and the production scheduling enthusiasm is average. The salt lake end has sufficient profit margins and strong production scheduling motivation [8]. - Inventory: The total inventory is 143,170 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.39%, higher than the historical average. The smelter inventory is 55,385 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.57%, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory is 42,815 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.74%, higher than the historical average [8]. - Position: The net short position of the main contract has decreased, showing a bearish signal [8]. - Expected Market: The import volume of lithium carbonate in June 2025 was 17,698 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 22,000 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.31%. The 2509 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 66,740 - 69,820 [8]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Market Overview: The prices of most lithium - related products showed a downward trend. For example, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased from 72,950 yuan/ton to 72,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.30% [14]. - Supply - Side Data: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate decreased by 0.80% to 62.2%. The monthly production of lithium carbonate in June 2025 was 78,090 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.34%. The import volume of lithium concentrate decreased by 17.25% month - on - month [18]. - Demand - Side Data: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 2.09% to 229,900 tons, and the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate lithium increased by 2.30% to 68,360 tons. The monthly power battery loading volume increased by 1.93% to 58,200 GWh [18].