建信期货棉花日报-20250801

1. Report Overview - Report Date: August 1, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Cotton [1] - Research Analysts: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 3. Core Viewpoints - Zhengzhou cotton decreased in price with reduced positions. The spot cotton price index for Grade 328 dropped by 145 yuan/ton to 15,325 yuan/ton. The trading in the pure cotton yarn market slowed down significantly, and the demand for price cuts from downstream increased. The trading in the all - cotton grey fabric market was weak, with fewer inquiries and mainly small and urgent orders. The restart rate of previously reduced - production weaving factories was low, and the operating rate remained sluggish [7]. - The suspension of the US 24% "reciprocal tariffs" and China's counter - measures has been extended to November 11, 2025. As of the week ending July 27, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 55% (down from 57% the previous week), the budding rate was 80% (up from 71% the previous week), and the boll - setting rate was 44% (up from 33% the previous week). The domestic sown area has increased year - on - year, and the expectation of a bumper harvest remains. The operating rate of inland spinning mills in the industrial downstream decreased, and the finished product inventory did not continue to accumulate. The deterioration rate of the downstream margin slowed down slightly, but the overall demand remained weak. In the short term, the main contract reduced positions and changed months. With no macro - level positive factors, the price declined, and the spread between September and January contracts continued to narrow [8]. 4. Section Summaries 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: Zhengzhou cotton decreased in price with reduced positions. The spot cotton price index for Grade 328 dropped by 145 yuan/ton to 15,325 yuan/ton. Different regions and grades of cotton had different basis quotes. The trading in the pure cotton yarn market slowed down, and the demand for price cuts from downstream increased. The trading in the all - cotton grey fabric market was weak, with fewer inquiries and mainly small and urgent orders. The restart rate of previously reduced - production weaving factories was low, and the operating rate remained sluggish [7]. - Macro and Industry Situation: The suspension of the US 24% "reciprocal tariffs" and China's counter - measures has been extended to November 11, 2025. As of the week ending July 27, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 55%, the budding rate was 80%, and the boll - setting rate was 44%. The domestic sown area has increased year - on - year, and the expectation of a bumper harvest remains. The operating rate of inland spinning mills in the industrial downstream decreased, and the finished product inventory did not continue to accumulate. The deterioration rate of the downstream margin slowed down slightly, but the overall demand remained weak. In the short term, the main contract reduced positions and changed months. With no macro - level positive factors, the price declined, and the spread between September and January contracts continued to narrow [8]. 4.2 Industry News - The Federal Reserve's September interest - rate meeting kept the interest rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%. Governors Waller and Bowman voted against and advocated for an interest - rate cut. The Fed modified its description of the economic situation, stating that "economic activity growth has slowed down in the first half of the year" and that "the uncertainty of the economic outlook remains at a high level" [9]. 4.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including those related to China's cotton price index, cotton spot and futures prices, cotton basis changes, contract spreads, cotton commercial and industrial inventories, and exchange rates such as the US dollar against the Chinese yuan and the Indian rupee [17][18][25]. The data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [12].