Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index showed a downward trend with fluctuations, while the TMT sector remained strong. The four major stock index futures contracts all declined, and the market faced adjustment pressure. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2][3][4]. - Due to the decline in PMI and the fall of risk assets, the bond futures market continued to rise. It is recommended to allocate more in the short - term and pay attention to high - frequency economic data [6]. - The impact of US tariffs on inflation continued to emerge. Gold prices rose and then fell, and silver prices were under pressure. It is recommended to buy gold at low levels and pay attention to the changes in silver's industrial demand [9][10]. - The main contract of container shipping futures declined. It is expected to be weakly volatile, and it is advisable to short the 08 and 10 contracts at high prices [12]. - Most non - ferrous metals were under pressure. Copper prices were affected by the disappointment of US copper tariff expectations; aluminum prices were affected by the off - season and macro factors; other non - ferrous metals also faced different supply - demand and macro challenges [17][22][28]. - Black metals showed different trends. Steel prices turned to a volatile state; iron ore prices fluctuated with steel prices; coking coal and coke prices fluctuated sharply, and there were concerns about short - term peaks [42][45][49]. - In the agricultural products sector, the price of soybean meal was supported by import concerns; the price of live pigs was expected to remain at the bottom and fluctuate; the price of corn was in a range - bound state [57][59][62]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market Conditions: On Thursday, the main indexes opened lower and declined with fluctuations. The TMT sector rose against the trend, while the pro - cyclical sectors fell collectively. The four major stock index futures contracts all declined, and most of the basis of the main contracts was at a discount [2][3]. - News: China's July official manufacturing PMI and non - manufacturing business activity index declined, and the comprehensive PMI output index also decreased. Overseas, Trump announced new tariff policies [3]. - Funding: On July 31, the trading volume of the A - share market reached a new high, and the net capital withdrawal by the central bank was 4.78 billion yuan [4]. - Operation Suggestion: Due to the adjustment pressure caused by the difference between market expectations and policies, it is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. Bond Futures - Market Performance: Bond futures closed higher across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally declined [5]. - Funding: The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 28.32 billion yuan on July 31, with a net capital withdrawal of 4.78 billion yuan. After the cross - month period, the funding is expected to return to a loose state [5][6]. - Fundamentals: China's July official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMI declined, but still remained above the critical point, indicating that the overall production and business activities of enterprises maintained an expansion [6]. - Operation Suggestion: It is recommended to allocate more in the short - term to play the wave - repair market of bond futures and pay attention to high - frequency economic data [6]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - News: Trump reached a 90 - day short - term agreement with Mexico, maintaining the current tariffs. The US 6 - month core PCE price index increased year - on - year [7][8]. - Market Performance: Gold prices rose and then fell, and silver prices were affected by the decline in the non - ferrous sector [9]. - Funding: Some funds continued to flow into ETFs, supporting the price [10]. - Outlook: The price of gold is expected to be under pressure in the short term and test the support of the 100 - day moving average. Silver prices are expected to fluctuate in the range of 36 - 37 US dollars [9][10]. - Operation Suggestion: Buy gold at low levels and pay attention to the changes in silver's industrial demand [10]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Futures - Spot Price: As of July 31, the spot prices of major shipping companies continued to decline [11]. - Index: As of July 28, the SCFIS European line index and the US West line index declined [11]. - Fundamentals: As of July 31, the global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year, and the demand in the eurozone and the US showed different trends [11]. - Logic: The futures price declined, and the main contract price was driven down by the falling spot price [12]. - Operation Suggestion: It is expected to be weakly volatile, and it is advisable to short the 08 and 10 contracts at high prices [12]. Financial Derivatives - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: As of July 31, the average price of electrolytic copper decreased, and the trading sentiment was average [13]. - Macro: Multiple important meetings were held, and the US 50% electrolytic copper tariff expectation was disappointed [14]. - Supply: The supply of copper concentrate was restricted, and the production of electrolytic copper was expected to increase in July [15]. - Demand: The short - term domestic demand was resilient, but there was marginal pressure in Q3 [16]. - Inventory: The inventories of COMEX, LME, and domestic social inventories all increased [16]. - Logic: The US copper tariff expectation was disappointed, and the non - US electrolytic copper market showed a pattern of "loose supply expectation and weak demand", and the price was under pressure in the short term [17]. - Operation Suggestion: The main contract price is expected to range from 77,000 to 79,000 yuan [17]. Aluminum Oxide - Spot: On July 31, the spot prices of aluminum oxide in different regions remained unchanged [17]. - Supply: In June, the production of metallurgical - grade aluminum oxide increased year - on - year, and the operating capacity increased [18]. - Inventory: The port inventory of aluminum oxide increased, and the total registered warehouse receipts decreased [18]. - Logic: The futures price of aluminum oxide declined, and the basis decreased. There was a risk of short - squeeze due to the low warehouse receipts [19]. - Operation Suggestion: The main contract price is expected to range from 3,000 to 3,400 yuan. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and short at high prices in the medium term [19]. Aluminum - Spot: On July 31, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum decreased, and the premium decreased [19]. - Supply: In June, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased, and the proportion of molten aluminum was expected to decline in July [20]. - Demand: The downstream was in the traditional off - season, and the starting rates of various industries were generally stable or slightly decreased [20]. - Inventory: The domestic mainstream consumption area inventory increased, and the LME inventory increased slightly [21]. - Logic: The aluminum price declined, and the off - season inventory accumulation expectation was strong. The price was under pressure in the short term [22]. - Operation Suggestion: The main contract price is expected to range from 20,200 to 21,000 yuan [22]. Zinc - Spot: On July 31, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots decreased, and the trading was average [25]. - Supply: The supply of zinc ore was expected to be loose, and the production of refined zinc was expected to increase in July [26]. - Demand: The starting rates of the three primary processing industries were differentiated, and the demand was affected by the price increase [27]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory increased, and the LME inventory decreased [27]. - Logic: The supply of zinc ore was expected to be loose, but the production growth rate was lower than expected. The demand was affected by the price increase, and the price was expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [28]. - Operation Suggestion: The main contract price is expected to range from 22,000 to 23,000 yuan [28]. Tin - Spot: On July 31, the price of SMM 1 tin decreased, and the trading was dull [28]. - Supply: In June, the import of tin ore and tin ingots decreased and increased respectively [29]. - Demand and Inventory: In June, the starting rate of solder decreased, and the demand showed a weak trend. The LME inventory remained unchanged, and the domestic social inventory increased [29][30]. - Logic: The supply of tin ore was tight, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to be in a wide - range shock [31]. - Operation Suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the changes in Sino - US negotiations and Myanmar's post - resumption inventory [31]. Nickel - Spot: As of July 31, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel decreased [31]. - Supply: In June, the production of refined nickel decreased slightly, and the production in July was expected to increase slightly [31]. - Demand: The demand for electroplating was stable, the alloy demand was good, the stainless steel demand was general, and the production of nickel sulfate decreased [32]. - Inventory: The overseas inventory remained high, the domestic social inventory increased slightly, and the bonded area inventory remained stable [32]. - Logic: The macro - sentiment was weak, and the nickel price was under pressure. The supply of nickel ore was relatively loose, and the stainless steel demand was weak. The price was expected to be in a range adjustment in the short term [33]. - Operation Suggestion: The main contract price is expected to range from 118,000 to 126,000 yuan [33]. Stainless Steel - Spot: As of July 31, the prices of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan decreased [34]. - Raw Materials: The price of nickel ore was loose, the price of nickel iron was stable, and the price of ferrochrome was weakly stable [34]. - Supply: In July, the estimated production of stainless steel decreased, and the production of 300 - series decreased [34][35]. - Inventory: The social inventory decreased slowly, and the warehouse receipts decreased [35]. - Logic: The stainless steel price declined, and the terminal demand was weak. The price was expected to be in a range shock in the short term [36]. - Operation Suggestion: The main contract price is expected to range from 12,600 to 13,200 yuan [36]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot: As of July 31, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased, and the price of lithium hydroxide increased slightly [37]. - Supply: In June, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and the production in July was expected to continue to increase. The recent supply was disturbed, and the production decreased last week [38]. - Demand: The demand was relatively stable, and the seasonal performance was weakened [38]. - Inventory: The overall inventory began to decrease, the upstream inventory decreased significantly, and the downstream inventory increased [39]. - Logic: The lithium carbonate price was weak, and the trading core shifted to the ore end. The short - term supply uncertainty increased, and the price was expected to be in a wide - range shock [40]. - Operation Suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see cautiously and pay attention to the macro - expectation changes and supply adjustment [41]. Financial Derivatives - Black Metals Steel - Spot: The spot price decreased significantly, and the basis strengthened [41]. - Cost and Profit: The cost increased, but the steel price also increased, and the steel mill's profit increased [41]. - Supply: The molten iron production was stable at a high level, and the production of five major steel products increased slightly. The production of rebar decreased seasonally, and the production of hot - rolled coil remained high [41]. - Demand: The apparent demand for five major steel products was stable at a high level, and the seasonal decline was not significant [42]. - Inventory: The inventory of mainstream steel products was stable at a low level, and the off - season inventory accumulation was less than expected [42]. - Viewpoint: The market expectation cooled down, and the steel price turned to a volatile state. It is recommended to go long on dips [42]. Iron Ore - Spot: The prices of mainstream iron ore powders remained unchanged [43]. - Futures: The 09 and far - month contracts of iron ore decreased [43]. - Basis: The optimal deliverable product was Carajás fines, and the basis of different varieties was different [44]. - Demand: The molten iron production decreased slightly, the blast furnace operating rate remained unchanged, and the steel mill's profit rate increased [44]. - Supply: The global iron ore shipment increased, and the 45 - port arrival volume decreased [44]. - Inventory: The port inventory decreased slightly, the daily average unloading volume decreased, and the steel mill's imported iron ore inventory increased [44]. - Viewpoint: The iron ore price was expected to follow the steel price. It is recommended to go long cautiously on a single - side and long iron ore and short hot - rolled coil in an arbitrage [45]. Coking Coal - Futures and Spot: The coking coal futures price decreased significantly, and the spot auction price fluctuated. The Mongolian coal price decreased [46][49]. - Supply: The coal mine operating rate decreased slightly, and the domestic coking coal auction was good. The Mongolian coal price followed the futures price down [46][49]. - Demand: The coking operating rate was stable, the downstream blast furnace molten iron production decreased slightly at a high level, and the downstream replenishment increased [47][49]. - Inventory: The coal mine inventory decreased rapidly, the port inventory decreased, and the downstream inventory increased at a low level [48][49]. - Viewpoint: The coking coal price fluctuated sharply. The spot market was relatively stable, and the futures price had over - expected increase. It is recommended to wait and see for speculation and conduct a 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage [49]. Coke - Futures and Spot: The coke futures price decreased, and the spot factory price increased, while the port trade price decreased. The mainstream coking enterprises initiated the fifth - round price increase [50][53]. - Profit: The average profit per ton of coke was - 45 yuan, and different regions had different profit situations [50]. - Supply: The coke production was stable, and the coal mine production recovery was less than expected [50][53]. - Demand: The blast furnace molten iron production decreased slightly at a high level, and the downstream demand provided support [51][53]. - Inventory: The coking plant inventory continued to decrease, the port inventory increased slightly, and the steel mill inventory decreased [52][53]. - Viewpoint: The coke price had a short - term price increase expectation, but there was a risk of peaking and falling back. It is recommended to wait and see for speculation and conduct a 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage [53]. Financial Derivatives - Agricultural Products Meal - Spot Market: The price of soybean meal was stable with a slight increase, and the trading volume increased. The price of rapeseed meal fluctuated, and the trading volume was small [55]. - Fundamentals: Brazil's soybean export volume in July was estimated, and China and the US held trade talks [55][56]. - Market Outlook: The US soybean price was weak, and the domestic soybean meal price was supported by import concerns. It is recommended to wait and see [56][57]. Live Pigs - Spot Situation: The spot price of live pigs rebounded, and the prices in different regions increased [58]. - Market Data: The profit of self - breeding and self - raising and purchased piglet fattening decreased, and the average slaughter weight decreased [58][59]. - Market Outlook: The live pig price was expected to remain at the bottom and fluctuate. The near - month 09 contract had strong upward pressure, and the far - month contract was affected by policies [59][60]. Corn - Spot Price: The spot prices in different regions were stable or decreased slightly, and the trading was light [61]. - Fundamentals: The inventories of different links decreased, and the feed enterprise's inventory days decreased slightly [62]. - Market Outlook: The import corn auction continued, and the impact was weakened. The short - term market was range - bound, and the medium - and long - term supply - demand situation was different [62].
广发早知道：汇总版-20250801
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-08-01 02:33