大越期货油脂早报-20250801

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports an increase in biodiesel consumption. The domestic tariff on Canadian rapeseed has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector, and the domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral with stable import inventories. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level. Soybean oil Y2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 8400, palm oil P2509 in the range of 8600 - 9000, and rapeseed oil OI2509 in the range of 9300 - 9700 [3][5][6] Summary by Directory Soybean Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in May decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that Malaysia's palm oil export data this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [3][4][5] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8360, with a basis of 168, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4] - Inventory: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [4] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4] - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [3] - Expectation: Soybean oil Y2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 8400 [3] Palm Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. The current export data has increased, and the supply will increase in the subsequent production season [5] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9000, with a basis of 100, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [5] - Inventory: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 10,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 34.1% [5] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [5] - Main Position: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have increased [5] - Expectation: Palm oil P2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8600 - 9000 [5] Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. The current export data has increased, and the supply will increase in the subsequent production season [6] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9600, with a basis of 90, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [6] - Inventory: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [6] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [6] - Main Position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased [6] - Expectation: Rapeseed oil OI2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9300 - 9700 [6] Recent利多利空Analysis -利多: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. It is the palm oil production cut season [7] -利空: The prices of oils and fats are historically high, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats continues to accumulate. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [7] - Main Logic: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [7] Supply and Demand - Supply: It includes imports of soybean inventory, soybean oil inventory, soybean meal inventory, oil mill soybean crushing, palm oil inventory, rapeseed oil inventory, rapeseed inventory, and domestic total inventory of oils and fats [8][10][12] - Demand: It includes the apparent consumption of soybean oil [16]