大越期货菜粕早报-20250801

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - Rapeseed meal RM2509 will fluctuate in the range of 2640 - 2700. It was affected by the import rapeseed inventory at a low level and China's tariff increase on Canadian oil residue cakes, and then pulled back after rising. With the influence of soybean meal, the price will return to range - bound in the short - term [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tip - Rapeseed meal RM2509 fluctuates in the range of 2640 - 2700. The opening rate of rapeseed meal oil mills is at a low level, and the inventory is low, which supports the market. The spot demand for rapeseed meal has entered the peak season in the short - term. The import volume of rapeseed has increased, but the oil mill inventory has no short - term pressure. The market will maintain range - bound in the short - term. China's tariff increase on Canadian oil residue cakes is short - term positive, but the positive effect may be limited as no tariff is imposed on rapeseed imports [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expectation of tight supply in the spot market, while the demand side maintains a good expectation. - The annual output of Canadian rapeseed has decreased slightly, supporting the foreign futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing, with the future result uncertain. - The global rapeseed output has decreased slightly this year, mainly affected by the decrease in EU rapeseed output and the lower - than - expected Canadian rapeseed output. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict is still ongoing. The decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed output and the increase in Russian rapeseed output offset each other. There is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish Factors: China's tariff increase on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; the inventory pressure of oil mill rapeseed meal is not large [12]. - Bearish Factors: The listing of domestic rapeseed in June; the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - peak demand for rapeseed meal [13]. - Current Main Logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Base Difference: The spot price is 2620, and the base difference is - 79, indicating a discount to the futures, which is bearish [9]. - Inventory: The rapeseed meal inventory is 19,000 tons, up 25.83% week - on - week from 15,100 tons last week, and down 44.12% year - on - year from 34,000 tons in the same period last year, which is bullish [9]. - Disk: The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upwards, which is bullish [9]. - Transaction Data: From July 22 to July 31, the average transaction price of soybean meal fluctuated between 2924 - 2990, and the transaction volume between 8.35 - 43.6 million tons; the average transaction price of rapeseed meal fluctuated between 2560 - 2640, and the transaction volume between 0 - 0.5 million tons. The average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated between 316 - 364 [14]. - Price and Inventory Data: The rapeseed meal spot price followed the futures price fluctuations, and the high - level discount of the spot price narrowed. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2509 contract between soybean meal and rapeseed meal maintained a volatile trend. The rapeseed import volume in July was lower than expected, and the import cost fluctuated slightly. The oil mill's rapeseed inventory increased slightly, the rapeseed meal inventory remained low, and the rapeseed crushing volume increased slightly [21][23][28]. 3.5 Position Data - The main short positions decreased, and the capital flowed in, which is bearish [9]. - The rapeseed meal warehouse receipts were 0 from July 22 to July 30, and increased by 1200 to 1200 on July 31 [18].