建信期货国债日报-20250801

Report Information Report Title - "National Debt Daily" [1] Report Date - August 1, 2025 [2] Researchers - He Zhuoqiao (Macro Precious Metals), contact: 18665641296, email: hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3008762 [3] - Huang Wenxin (National Debt and Container Shipping), contact: 021 - 60635739, email: huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3051589 [3] - Nie Jiayi (Stock Index), contact: 021 - 60635735, email: niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F03124070 [3] Key Points Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Report Core View - Since mid - late July, market risk preference has significantly increased. The strong performance of the stock market, the recovery of commodities, and the rising inflation expectations have pressured the bond market. However, the bond market did not experience a panic - driven decline. The long - term bullish environment for the bond market remains unchanged due to the potential economic downturn and the room for monetary easing. The third quarter is likely a policy observation period [11][12] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Performance: Commodity price drops dragged down cyclical stocks and the stock market, cooling inflation expectations and leading to a full - line rebound in national debt futures. The yields of major term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market all rose by about 1 - 2bp, while the yield of the 10 - year active bond 250011 dropped by 1.6bp to 1.7040% [8][9] - Funding Market: Cross - month funds were abundant, and the central bank shifted to a net withdrawal. There were 3310 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, and the central bank conducted 2832 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 478 billion yuan. Short - term interest rates rose slightly but remained at a loose level, and medium - and long - term funds were stable and abundant [10] - Conclusion: The bond market adjustment was not a panic - driven decline. The sustainability of the rally in cyclical stocks and commodities is questionable. If economic growth and inflation expectations are revised, the bond market will recover. In the long run, the bullish environment for the bond market remains unchanged, but the third quarter is likely a policy observation period [11][12] 2. Industry News - Macro Data: China's official non - manufacturing PMI in July was 50.1, down 0.4 percentage points month - on - month but still above the critical point. The official manufacturing PMI was 49.3, down 0.4 percentage points, and the composite PMI output index was 50.2, down 0.5 percentage points, indicating that overall business activities remained in an expansionary range [13] - Macro Policy: The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee in October. It emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability, implementing a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and taking various measures to support the economy and resolve risks [14] 3. Data Overview - National Debt Futures Market: Data on trading, including opening prices, closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, trading volumes, open interests, etc., of various national debt futures contracts on July 31 were presented [6] - Money Market: Information on SHIBOR term structure changes, SHIBOR trends, inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rate changes, and silver - deposit inter - bank pledged repurchase rate changes was provided [28][32] - Derivatives Market: Information on Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curves and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curves was provided [34]