Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: August 1, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - With the further cooling of the "anti-involution" logic, aluminum industry chain varieties continued to correct. Shanghai aluminum 2509 closed down 0.53% at 20,510, the total index positions decreased by 18,206 to 591,031 lots, and the 08-09 premium widened 30 to 70; cast aluminum alloy adjusted narrowly following Shanghai aluminum, with the AD-AL negative spread at -505. Alumina fluctuated greatly due to the anti-involution logic, dropping 4.05% intraday to 3,222 [8]. - Fundamentally, the supply of bauxite is gradually tightening, and the impact of the previous rainy season in Guinea and mine rights suspension is expected to gradually appear in August, providing bottom support for ore prices; on the 31st, with the sharp drop in the alumina futures price, the futures-spot arbitrage window was almost closed, and the spot demand for deliverable products may weaken. Coupled with the temporary cooling of anti-involution trading, alumina adjusted at a high level. If there is a high point, appropriate short positions can be taken [8]. - In the cast aluminum sector, it is currently the off-season for the automotive industry. Demand has weakened while the supply of scrap aluminum is in short supply. Under the double weakness of supply and demand, cast aluminum continued to fluctuate in a range following Shanghai aluminum, and the AD-AL maintained a low negative spread structure [8]. - At the electrolytic aluminum end, the domestic operating capacity remains at a high level, and the demand side in the off-season continues to be sluggish. The operating rate of the aluminum processing sector remains weak. Considering the high smelting profit of aluminum and the significant inhibitory effect of the absolute high price on terminal consumption after the price increase, the current macro logic dominates the fluctuation of aluminum prices. If there is a rebound, appropriate short positions can be taken [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai aluminum 2509 closed down 0.53% at 20,510, the total index positions decreased by 18,206 to 591,031 lots, and the 08-09 premium widened 30 to 70; cast aluminum alloy adjusted narrowly following Shanghai aluminum, with the AD-AL negative spread at -505. Alumina dropped 4.05% intraday to 3,222 [8]. - Bauxite supply is gradually tightening, and the impact of the previous rainy season in Guinea and mine rights suspension is expected to gradually appear in August, providing bottom support for ore prices [8]. - On the 31st, with the sharp drop in the alumina futures price, the futures-spot arbitrage window was almost closed, and the spot demand for deliverable products may weaken. Coupled with the temporary cooling of anti-involution trading, alumina adjusted at a high level. If there is a high point, appropriate short positions can be taken [8]. - It is currently the off-season for the automotive industry. Demand has weakened while the supply of scrap aluminum is in short supply. Under the double weakness of supply and demand, cast aluminum continued to fluctuate in a range following Shanghai aluminum, and the AD-AL maintained a low negative spread structure [8]. - The domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains at a high level, and the demand side in the off-season continues to be sluggish. The operating rate of the aluminum processing sector remains weak. Considering the high smelting profit of aluminum and the significant inhibitory effect of the absolute high price on terminal consumption after the price increase, the current macro logic dominates the fluctuation of aluminum prices. If there is a rebound, appropriate short positions can be taken [8]. 2. Industry News - Ghana has canceled a $1.2 billion bauxite agreement with local company Rocksure International and is seeking to cooperate with a large overseas company to develop one of the richest bauxite deposits in West Africa. Potential partners include the United Arab Emirates Global Aluminium Company (EGA) based in Dubai or a Chinese company [9]. - In June 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were approximately 192,400 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 13.8% and a year-on-year increase of 58.7%. From January to June, the cumulative total primary aluminum imports were approximately 1.2499 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. In June 2025, China's primary aluminum exports were approximately 19,600 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 39.5% and a year-on-year increase of 179.4%; from January to June, the cumulative total primary aluminum exports were approximately 86,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of about 206.6%. In June 2025, China's net primary aluminum imports were 172,700 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 9.4% and a year-on-year increase of 51.3%. From January to June, the cumulative net primary aluminum imports were approximately 1.1633 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3% [10]. - On the evening of July 17, 2025, Guinea's national television announced a ministerial order signed by the Ministry of Mines and Geology, officially revoking the exploration and mining licenses of 45 mining companies, including six bauxite enterprises. After verification by SMM, the revoked bauxite enterprises all had long-idle mine rights and no actual mining activities. The official said that these mine rights were taken back by the state without compensation. This action was part of a comprehensive rectification of the national mining registration system, aiming to comprehensively improve the transparency and standardization of mineral resource management [10]. - Alcoa expects its San Ciprián aluminum smelter in Spain to restart in mid-2026, and the expected delay will result in losses of up to $110 million. Due to high electricity prices, the plant's production decreased in 2021. The smelter was originally in the process of restarting, but due to a nationwide power outage in Spain on April 28, both the electrolytic aluminum plant and the adjacent alumina plant were affected, and the restart plan was postponed. The electrolytic aluminum plant has an electrolytic aluminum production capacity of 228,000 tons. After evaluating the power outage losses, the joint venture suspended the resumption of production at the smelter until the Spanish government provided detailed information on the cause of the power outage and the measures taken to prevent similar incidents from happening again. On July 14, Alcoa and its joint venture partner Ignis Equity Holdings confirmed that the restart work of the San Ciprián electrolytic aluminum plant in Spain, which was suspended due to the previous nationwide power outage, had restarted. Alcoa expects the smelter to record a net loss of approximately $90 million to $110 million in 2025, and the entire restart process is expected to be completed by mid-2026 [10][11]
铝日报-20250801
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-08-01 03:02