大越期货原油早报-20250801

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the fundamentals of crude oil 2509, including factors such as production, inventory, and market sentiment. It notes that although the previous concerns have slightly decreased, potential concerns continue to provide strong support for oil prices. Short - term oil prices are expected to continue to oscillate at high levels, with short - term trading in the 526 - 536 range and long - term long positions held with a light position [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - For crude oil 2509, the fundamentals are neutral as the US May crude production reached a record high; the basis shows a spot premium over futures, which is bullish; inventory data is bearish as API and EIA inventories increased; the 20 - day moving average is flat with price above, neutral;主力持仓 is bearish as WTI and Brent long positions decreased; short - term oil prices are expected to oscillate between 526 - 536, and long - term long positions can be held lightly [3]. 2. Recent News - Trump will maintain a 10% global minimum tariff, and imports from countries with trade surpluses with the US will face 15% or higher tariffs. Tariffs on various countries are determined, and market reaction in Asian morning trading was muted [5]. - US May crude production reached a record high of 1349 million barrels per day, an increase of 2.4 million barrels per day from April. OPEC members have also accelerated production increases since May, leading to concerns about supply surplus [5]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: potential US secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports and increasing summer demand [6]. - Bearish factors: continuous production increases by OPEC+ for three months and tense trade relations between the US and other economies [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - Futures prices of various crude oil types (Brent, WTI, SC, Oman) increased, with Oman crude rising 3.89% [7]. - Spot prices of various crude oil types (UK Brent, WTI, Oman, Shengli, Dubai) also increased, with UK Brent Dtd rising 2.88% [9]. - API inventory increased by 153.9 million barrels in the week ending July 25, while the expected decrease was 250 million barrels [3][10]. - EIA inventory increased by 769.8 million barrels in the week ending July 25, while the expected decrease was 128.8 million barrels [3][13]. 5. Position Data - WTI crude net long positions decreased to 153331 as of July 22, a decrease of 9096 [15]. - Brent crude net long positions also decreased as of July 22 [3].