农产品早报-20250801

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Corn: In the short - term, the supply - demand gap persists before the new crop is on the market, providing strong support for spot and near - month contract prices. In the long - term, potential increases in forward import orders and new - season supply may put downward pressure on prices [3]. - Starch: In the short - term, it is expected to have a weak rebound. In the long - term, high inventory and lower expected raw material costs lead to a bearish outlook [3]. - Sugar: Internationally, there is potential for a corrective rebound in raw sugar. Domestically, the arrival of imported sugar creates significant upward pressure on the futures market [6]. - Cotton: The upward trend needs verification during the September peak season. Consider 9 - 11 or 9 - 1 reverse spreads for month - spreads [8]. - Eggs: Spot prices are in a seasonal upward channel, but high cold - storage egg inventory and high laying - hen存栏 may limit the rebound height [13]. - Apples: New - season production may not differ much from last year. Consumption is in the off - season, and the market share is squeezed by seasonal fruits [16]. - Pigs: Long - term supply pressure remains. Futures prices need further verification from spot prices, and short - term supply is sufficient with seasonal support [16]. 3. Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - Price Data: From July 25 to July 31, corn prices in some regions changed, with a maximum decline of 20 yuan/ton in蛇口. Starch prices were stable, and the processing profit increased by 2 yuan [2]. - Analysis: Corn supply tension is slightly relieved by auctions. Starch is in a loss situation with high inventory [3]. Sugar - Price Data: From July 25 to July 31, sugar prices in some regions decreased, with a maximum decline of 20 yuan/ton in柳州. The import profit increased by 7 yuan/ton for Thailand sugar [6]. - Analysis: International supply pressure affects prices. Domestic import arrivals create upward pressure on the futures market [6]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - Price Data: From July 25 to July 31, the price of 3128 imported M - grade US cotton decreased by 150 yuan/ton. The 32S spinning profit increased by 77 yuan/ton [8]. - Analysis: Inventory reduction drives price increases, but downstream demand is weak [8]. Eggs - Price Data: From July 25 to July 31, egg prices in some regions decreased, with a maximum decline of 0.10 yuan in山东 and河南. The base difference decreased by 38 [13]. - Analysis: Seasonal factors drive price increases, but high inventory and存栏 may limit the increase [13]. Apples - Price Data: From July 25 to July 31, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 7800 yuan/ton. The national inventory increased by 68 (unit not specified) [16]. - Analysis: New - season production may be similar to last year, and consumption is in the off - season [16]. Pigs - Price Data: From July 25 to July 31, pig prices in some regions increased, with a maximum increase of 0.40 yuan in河南开封. The base difference increased by 400 [16]. - Analysis: Long - term supply pressure exists, and futures prices need spot verification [16].