原油成品油早报-20250801
- Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - This week, crude oil prices fluctuated. The monthly spreads of the three major crude oil markets declined, and the absolute prices dropped on Friday. The market is mainly concerned about the progress of trade negotiations between the US and other countries, as well as the US sanctions on Russia. Fundamentally, global oil inventories decreased slightly. The US EIA commercial inventory decreased, while diesel inventories in ARA and Singapore continued to decline, and diesel inventories in the US and China increased. The cracking spread of European diesel strengthened slightly, and global refinery profits declined slightly but remained high year - on - year. In China, refinery operations were volatile, with Shandong local refineries increasing production. Recently, gasoline and diesel inventories at refineries increased significantly, and refinery profits weakened month - on - month, leaving limited room to boost operations further. The current peak season for crude oil demand, high diesel profits, and the US plan to impose secondary sanctions on Russia support the near - term supply and demand of crude oil. However, the peak - season factors have been largely realized, and the monthly spreads have started to decline recently. In the medium term, the absolute prices of crude oil face downward pressure due to OPEC's accelerated production increase and the impact of US tariff policies on the global economy. Attention should be paid to the contradiction between non - OPEC production and the near - term diesel inventory [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily News - The US and its allies condemned Iran's intelligence agency for creating increasing national threats in their countries [3]. - The US Middle East envoy met with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to discuss issues such as the Gaza cease - fire agreement, the humanitarian situation in Gaza, and the Iranian nuclear issue [3]. - Canadian oil and gas producer Cenovus Energy lowered its annual upstream production forecast due to the temporary closure of its Rush Lake facility. Its upstream production in the second quarter was lower than the previous year, while downstream oil processing volume increased [3]. 3.2 Regional Fundamentals - In the week of July 25, US crude oil exports decreased by 1.157 million barrels per day to 2.698 million barrels per day, domestic crude oil production increased by 41,000 barrels to 13.314 million barrels per day, and commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 7.698 million barrels to 427 million barrels, a 1.84% increase [3][4]. - The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 238,000 barrels to 402.7 million barrels, a 0.06% increase in the week of July 25. The import of commercial crude oil (excluding strategic reserves) was 6.136 million barrels per day, an increase of 160,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week [4][5]. - The average four - week supply of US refined oil products was 20.801 million barrels per day, a 1.55% increase compared to the same period last year [4]. - From July 18 - 24, the operating rate of major refineries remained flat, and the operating rate of Shandong local refineries increased slightly. In China, the production of gasoline and diesel at refineries decreased, while inventories increased. The comprehensive profits of major refineries and local refineries declined month - on - month [5]. 3.3 Weekly View - This week, crude oil prices fluctuated, with the monthly spreads of the three major crude oil markets declining and the absolute prices dropping on Friday. The market is focused on US trade negotiations and sanctions. Fundamentally, global oil inventories decreased slightly, and refinery profits declined slightly but were still high year - on - year. In China, refinery operations were volatile, and refinery profits weakened. The peak - season factors for crude oil demand have been largely realized, and the monthly spreads have started to decline. In the medium term, the absolute prices face downward pressure, and attention should be paid to the contradiction between non - OPEC production and near - term diesel inventory [6].