沪铜市场周报：需求暂弱预期渐好，沪铜或将有所支撑-20250801

1. Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai Copper market has a weak current demand but an improving outlook. The fundamentals suggest a stage of gradually decreasing supply growth and temporarily weak demand, with positive expectations [4]. - The cost - support logic for copper prices remains due to tight copper ore supply, and the supply of refined copper in China may slow down. On the demand side, it is expected to gradually improve from the off - season to the peak season, with external demand weakening and internal demand being weak in the short - term and gradually improving in the long - term [4]. - The recommended strategy is to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary - Market Performance: The Shanghai Copper main contract had a weekly line that was oscillating weakly, with a weekly increase/decrease of - 1.07% and an amplitude of 1.7%. The closing price of the main contract as of this week was 78,400 yuan/ton [4]. - International Situation: In June, the US core PCE price index increased by 2.8% year - on - year, higher than the expected 2.7%. Real consumer spending increased by only 0.1% month - on - month, and disposable income remained flat in June after declining in May [4]. - Domestic Situation: In July, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a seasonal decline of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The non - manufacturing and comprehensive PMI output indices were 50.1% and 50.2% respectively, down 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the critical point, indicating that China's overall economic output continued to expand [4]. - Fundamentals: The TC fee for copper concentrates is still in the negative range, and domestic port inventories are continuously decreasing. The supply of refined copper in China may slow down due to policy guidance on the non - ferrous industry's production capacity and tight raw material supply. The downstream copper processing is in the off - season, but demand is expected to improve in the future. In August, the US exempted copper raw materials from tariffs, but still imposed high tariffs on copper products, so external demand is expected to weaken [4]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - Futures Contracts: As of August 1, 2025, the basis of the Shanghai Copper main contract was - 70 yuan/ton, a decrease of 270 yuan/ton from the previous week. The main contract price was 78,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 850 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the open interest was 167,671 lots, a decrease of 13,159 lots from the previous week [9]. - Spot Prices: As of August 1, 2025, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 78,330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 695 yuan/ton from the previous week [12]. - Inter - month Spreads: As of August 1, 2025, the inter - month spread of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 0 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan/ton from the previous week [12]. - Premiums and Positions: As of the latest data this week, the CIF average premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 62 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton from the previous week. The net long position of the top 20 in Shanghai Copper was 3,657 lots, a decrease of 3,030 lots from the previous week [21]. - Option Volatility: As of August 1, 2025, the short - term implied volatility of the at - the - money option contract of the Shanghai Copper main contract fell below the 50th percentile of historical volatility. As of this week, the put - call ratio of Shanghai Copper option open interest was 0.8671, an increase of 0.2260 from the previous week [26]. 3.3. Industrial Situation 3.3.1. Upstream - Raw Material Prices: As of the latest data this week, the copper concentrate price in the main mining area (Jiangxi) was 68,670 yuan/ton, a decrease of 800 yuan/ton from the previous week. The southern rough copper processing fee was 900 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from the previous week [29]. - Imports: As of June 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.3497 million tons, a decrease of 45,800 tons from May, a decline of 1.91%, and a year - on - year increase of 1.77%. As of the latest data this week, the refined - scrap copper price difference (including tax) was 936.46 yuan/ton, a decrease of 340.74 yuan/ton from the previous week [34]. - Global Production and Inventory: As of May 2025, the global monthly output of copper concentrates was 2,006 thousand tons, an increase of 97 thousand tons from April, an increase of 5.08%. The global capacity utilization rate of copper concentrates was 80.2%, an increase of 1.1% from April. As of the latest data, the inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 421,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons from the previous week [39]. 3.3.2. Supply - side - Refined Copper Production: As of June 2025, the monthly output of refined copper in China was 1.302 million tons, an increase of 48,000 tons from May, an increase of 3.83%, and a year - on - year increase of 15.43%. As of May 2025, the global monthly output of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2,395 thousand tons, an increase of 40 thousand tons from April, an increase of 1.7%. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper was 80.1%, a decrease of 1.8% from April [42]. - Imports: As of June 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 337,042.568 tons, an increase of 44,348.26 tons from May, an increase of 15.15%, and a year - on - year increase of 9.23%. As of the latest data this week, the import profit and loss amount was 774.03 yuan/ton, an increase of 500.58 yuan/ton from the previous week [49][50]. - Inventory: As of the latest data this week, the LME total inventory increased by 10,800 tons from the previous week, the COMEX total inventory increased by 7,096 tons from the previous week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 4,216 tons from the previous week. The total social inventory was 121,300 tons, a decrease of 3,700 tons from the previous week [53]. 3.3.3. Downstream and Applications - Copper Products: As of June 2025, the monthly output of copper products was 2.2145 million tons, an increase of 118,500 tons from May, an increase of 5.65%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 460,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons from May, an increase of 6.98%, and a year - on - year increase of 4.55% [58]. - Power and Appliance: As of June 2025, the cumulative investment in power grid construction and power source construction increased by 14.6% and 5.9% year - on - year respectively. The monthly production of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs increased by 16.5%, 3%, 4.8%, 18.9%, and - 11.1% year - on - year respectively [62]. - Real Estate and Integrated Circuits: As of June 2025, the cumulative real estate development investment was 466.5756 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.2% and a month - on - month increase of 28.77%. The cumulative production of integrated circuits was 239,469,611 thousand pieces, a year - on - year increase of 8.7% and a month - on - month increase of 23.78% [69]. 3.3.4. Overall Situation - Global Supply and Demand: As of May 2025, according to ICSG statistics, the global supply - demand balance was in a state of oversupply, with a monthly value of 97 thousand tons. According to WBMS statistics, the cumulative global supply - demand balance as of May 2025 was 84,200 tons [74].