苹果市场周报：早熟价格下滑，苹果冲高回落-20250801

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of Apple Futures 2510 rose first and then fell, with a weekly decline of 3.09%. The initial estimate of the national apple production in the new season is 3736.64 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.35%. As of July 23, 2025, the cold storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was at a low level in the same period of the past five years, and the purchase price of early-maturing varieties increased slightly year-on-year, which supported the price to fluctuate strongly. However, the large number of summer cooling fruits on the market impacted the demand for apples, and the possible increase in the output of new-season apples might restrict the price increase. The upper limit to watch is 8140 yuan/ton. It is recommended to hold the long orders of Apple 2510 contract cautiously and take profits at high positions [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Market Review: The price of Apple Futures 2510 rose first and then fell this week, with a weekly decline of 3.09% [5][10]. - Market Outlook: The estimated national apple production in the new season is 3736.64 million tons, an increase of 85.93 million tons or 2.35% compared with the 2024 - 2025 production season. As of July 23, 2025, the national cold storage inventory was 70.45 million tons, a decrease of 10.15 million tons from last week. The inventory in Shandong, Shaanxi, and Gansu decreased, but the destocking speed was different. The current inventory is at a low level in the same period of the past five years, and the purchase price of early - maturing varieties increased slightly year - on - year, supporting the price. However, the large number of summer fruits on the market and the possible increase in new - season output may restrict the price increase [5]. - Strategy Suggestion: It is recommended to hold the long orders of Apple 2510 contract cautiously and take profits at high positions [5]. - Future Trading Tips: Pay attention to the destocking rate, consumption, and new - crop output [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Market: As of this week, the net short position of the top 20 in Apple Futures was 288 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 0 [16]. - Spot Market: As of August 1, 2025, the mainstream price of 80 and above first - and second - grade fruit farmers' goods of bagged Red Fuji in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was 4 yuan/jin, and the price of bagged Fuji apples above 75 in Yiyuan, Shandong was 2.4 yuan/jin [19]. 3.3 Industry Situation and Options - Supply Side: As of July 30, 2025, the cold storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 61.61 million tons, a decrease of 8.84 million tons from last week. The destocking speed slowed down slightly. The destocking speed in Shandong, Shaanxi, and Gansu was still slow, and the inventory was low [24]. - Demand Side: - As of July 31, the average daily arrival of trucks in the main apple wholesale markets in Guangdong decreased. The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants was 0.6 yuan/jin [28]. - As of July 25, 2025, the average wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.73 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 1.62%, and the wholesale price of apples was 9.72 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 0.31% [33]. - As of July 25, 2025, the weekly average wholesale price of five kinds of fruits (including Fuji apples, bananas, tangerines, pears, and watermelons) was 7.13 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 2.6% [37]. - In June 2023, the export volume of fresh apples in China was 4 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.6% [40]. - Options Market: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options of apples this week was presented in a chart, but no specific data was given [41]. 3.4 Futures - Stock Correlation - A chart of the price - earnings ratio of Honghui Fruit and Vegetable was presented, but no specific analysis was given [43].