瑞达期货纯碱玻璃市场周报-20250801

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the futures prices of soda ash and glass dropped significantly due to the fading of the market's anti - involution sentiment after the Political Bureau meeting and the change in policy expectations for the second half of the year. The previous speculative upward trend has mostly reversed. However, the fundamentals are gradually taking effect. Soda ash supply is expected to remain loose, demand will continue to decline, and prices will face pressure. For glass, the probability of a rebound next week is high, and the subsequent market trading will be more about policy expectations [6]. - It is recommended to trade the SA2509 contract in the range of 1180 - 1280, with a stop - loss range of 1150 - 1300. For the FG2509 contract, it is recommended to operate in the range of 1080 - 1200, with a stop - loss range of 1050 - 1250 [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Market Review: This week, the soda ash futures dropped 12.78%, and the glass futures dropped 19.09%. The decline was mainly due to emotional trading. The fundamentals are gradually taking over. Glass may achieve a fundamental reversal first and repair the excessive decline next week [6]. - Market Outlook: For soda ash, the supply is still loose, the demand will continue to fall, and prices will be under pressure. For glass, the probability of a rebound next week is high, and the subsequent market trading will focus on policy expectations [6]. - Strategy Recommendation: Trade the SA2509 contract in the 1180 - 1280 range with a stop - loss of 1150 - 1300. Operate the FG2509 contract in the 1080 - 1200 range with a stop - loss of 1050 - 1250 [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Prices: This week, both soda ash and glass futures prices declined [8]. - Spot Prices: The soda ash spot price fell, and the glass spot price rose. The basis of both strengthened, and the soda ash - glass spread also strengthened and is expected to continue next week [13][19][24]. - Specific Data: As of July 31, 2025, the mainstream price of heavy - soda ash in the Shahe market was 1245 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 185 yuan/ton; the soda ash basis was - 2 yuan/ton. The price of 5.0mm large - plate glass in the Shahe market was 1184 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton; the glass basis was 67 yuan/ton. The glass - soda ash spread was 130 yuan/ton [17][22][26]. 3.3 Industry Chain Analysis - Soda Ash Production: This week, the domestic soda ash operating rate and production declined. As of July 31, 2025, the national soda ash operating rate was 80.27%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.75%, and the weekly production was 699,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.32% [28][32]. - Profitability: This week, the profits of domestic soda ash and glass enterprises increased. The theoretical profit of dual - ton soda ash by the combined soda process was 101 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 83 yuan/ton; the theoretical profit of soda ash by the ammonia - soda process was 52 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 87 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 150.36 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10.69%; the profit using coal - gas as fuel was 138.14 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 7.14%; the profit using petroleum coke as fuel was 137.71 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 157.78% [34][36][39]. - Glass Production: One more glass production line was cold - repaired this week, but the overall production remained stable at a low level. As of July 31, 2025, there were 296 glass production lines (excluding zombie lines), 222 in production, and 74 cold - repaired. The national float glass production was 1.1152 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.64%, and it is expected to remain low next week [41][43]. - Photovoltaic Glass: This week, the operating rate, capacity utilization, and daily melting volume of domestic photovoltaic glass declined. As of July 31, 2025, the capacity utilization of photovoltaic glass enterprises was 66.76%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.37%, and the daily melting volume was 86,500 tons/day, a week - on - week decrease of 1200 tons/day, with a high probability of further decline next week [45][47]. - Inventory: This week, the inventory of domestic soda ash enterprises decreased due to reduced production, and the inventory of glass enterprises also decreased. As of July 31, 2025, the inventory of soda ash enterprises was 1.7956 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.69%, and the total glass inventory was 59.499 million weight boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 3.87% [49][53]. - Downstream Demand: The downstream deep - processing orders of domestic glass increased slightly, but the demand remained low. As of July 31, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.55 days [55][57].