部署与储备并举，联储内部仍有分歧

Domestic Developments - In the first half of 2025, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China totaled CNY 3.44 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%, with the decline rate widening by 0.7 percentage points compared to the first five months[9] - The newly announced childcare subsidy scheme will provide CNY 3,600 per child per year for children under three years old starting January 1, 2025, aiming to alleviate childcare costs and enhance birth rates[11] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the need for policy preparation focusing on employment and domestic demand, with a target of stabilizing investment and promoting consumption[15] International Developments - The U.S. Treasury Department projected a net borrowing of USD 1.007 trillion from July to September 2025, an increase of nearly 82% from earlier estimates[21] - The Bank of Japan maintained its interest rate at 0.5%, aligning with market expectations, while raising its inflation forecast for the fiscal year 2025 from 2.2% to 2.7%[23] - The U.S. Federal Reserve voted 9-2 to keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 4.25%-4.50%, with Chairman Powell indicating that it is too early to conclude on a rate cut in September[25] Market Trends - Brent crude oil prices increased by 2.73% week-on-week, while iron ore and copper prices decreased by 2.15% and 0.89%, respectively[27] - Real estate sales in 30 major cities rose by 34.72% week-on-week, with first-tier cities seeing a 64.47% increase in transaction volume[42]