沪铅市场周报：联储降息预期打破，沪铅需求存在变数-20250801

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the Shanghai lead futures showed a volatile downward trend, with the main contract 2509 of Shanghai lead futures falling by 1.3%. The supply increased while the demand was insufficient, leading to a slight decline. Powell did not cut interest rates as expected, suppressing the overseas fundamentals and weakening the overseas demand further. Future trading will depend on domestic anti - involution and capacity reduction, as well as the effective recovery of US demand. The challenge to the Fed's independence may be an unexpected factor in the future [4]. - The operating rate of primary lead smelters increased due to the decline in lead prices, resulting in an increase in production. The primary lead operating rate remained stronger than that of secondary lead, and its by - product revenue was stable. However, some primary lead smelters adjusted their production decisions as lead prices fluctuated. For secondary lead, the supply of waste batteries was tight, leading to low confidence among smelters and a tight overall supply. The resumption of production was slow due to cost inversion. On the demand side, the lead - acid battery industry, the main consumer of lead, was approaching the traditional peak season. But in reality, the spot trading was dull, and downstream enterprises generally adopted a wait - and - see attitude. The slow inventory clearance of dealers inhibited the battery factories' enthusiasm for production. If the wait - and - see sentiment continued, the demand for lead in the lead - acid battery industry would not improve significantly next week, and the overall demand would remain weak. The inventory increased slightly, and the number of warehouse receipts also increased, indicating a slowdown in overall demand. Although the lead - acid battery industry was approaching the peak season, the demand had not effectively driven the inventory reduction. If the demand failed to pick up next week, the domestic inventory might continue to accumulate, suppressing the lead price. It is recommended to buy on dips for Shanghai lead [4]. - The main contract 2509 of Shanghai lead will fluctuate in the range of 16400 - 16800, with a stop - loss range of 16200 - 17300. Attention should be paid to the operation rhythm and risk control [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Key Points Summary - Market Review: This week, the Shanghai lead futures showed a volatile downward trend, with the main contract 2509 of Shanghai lead futures falling by 1.3%. The supply increased while the demand was insufficient, leading to a slight decline. Powell did not cut interest rates as expected, suppressing the overseas fundamentals and weakening the overseas demand further [4]. - Market Outlook: The operating rate of primary lead smelters increased, and production rose. The primary lead operating rate remained stronger than that of secondary lead, and its by - product revenue was stable. Some primary lead smelters adjusted production decisions. For secondary lead, the supply of waste batteries was tight, resulting in a tight overall supply and slow resumption of production. The lead - acid battery industry was approaching the peak season, but the demand was weak due to the wait - and - see attitude of downstream enterprises. The inventory increased slightly, and the number of warehouse receipts also increased. If the demand did not improve, the domestic inventory might accumulate, suppressing the lead price [4]. - Operation Suggestion: It is recommended to buy on dips for Shanghai lead. The main contract 2509 will fluctuate in the range of 16400 - 16800, with a stop - loss range of 16200 - 17300 [4]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - Price and Ratio: The domestic futures price of Shanghai lead was flat compared with last week, while the foreign futures price declined, and the ratio increased. As of July 31, 2025, the futures closing price (electronic disk) of LME 3 - month lead was $1965.5 per ton, and the futures closing price of the active contract of lead was 16955 yuan per ton. As of July 25, 2025, the Shanghai - London ratio of lead was 8.62 [6][10]. - Premium and Discount: The domestic futures premium strengthened, while the foreign premium weakened. As of July 31, 2025, the Chinese futures premium was 210 yuan per ton, and the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - $40.86 per ton [12][15]. - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: Both foreign and domestic lead inventories increased, and the number of warehouse receipts also increased, indicating a weakening overall demand for Shanghai lead. As of July 31, 2025, the total inventory of lead was 6.98 tons, an increase of 0.04 tons; the total LME lead inventory was 276,500 tons, an increase of 10,225 tons; the number of warehouse receipts for Shanghai lead was 62,360 tons, an increase of 2,401 tons [29][33]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation - Supply - Primary Lead: The operating rate and production of primary lead enterprises increased due to stable processing fees. As of July 24, 2025, the average operating rate of primary lead in major producing areas was 73.80%, an increase of 2.96% from last week; the weekly production of primary lead was 33,500 tons, an increase of 300 tons from last week [18][19]. - Supply - Secondary Lead: The capacity utilization rate of secondary lead enterprises increased, but it was still in the off - season, with few waste battery scrapings, and the capacity was difficult to recover. As of July 24, 2025, the domestic production of secondary lead in major producing areas was 19,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 300 tons; the average capacity utilization rate of secondary lead was 46.49%, a month - on - month increase of 5.22% [24][27]. - Supply - Secondary Lead Enterprises: The number of secondary lead production enterprises remained unchanged. As of June 30, 2025, the total number of secondary lead production enterprises was 68 [35][37]. - Supply - Lead Trade: The export of refined lead was obvious, but the export growth rate declined. The import of refined lead increased significantly. There was an arbitrage opportunity as the overseas lead ingot price was higher than the domestic price and the domestic processing fee was low. In June 2025, the export volume of refined lead was 3,183 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 42.69% and a year - on - year increase of 133.69%. The import volume of refined lead was 817 tons, and the import volume of lead alloy was 10,657 tons. From January to June 2025, the total export volume of refined lead and lead products was 34,748 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 29.89%; the total import volume was 75,013 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 152.1% [39][41]. - Demand - Lead Concentrate Processing Fees: The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat, while the import processing fee declined, with little impact on domestic production. As of July 25, 2025, the national average processing fee for lead concentrate was 540 yuan per ton, and the average monthly import processing fee for lead concentrate (Pb60) was - $60 per thousand tons [44][46]. - Demand - Automobile Sales: The growth rate of automobile production and sales decreased. In June 2025, domestic automobile sales were 2.904 million, a month - on - month increase of 8.1% and a year - on - year increase of 13.8%. In the first half of 2025, Chinese - brand passenger cars sold 9.27 million, a year - on - year increase of 25%, accounting for 68.5% of the total passenger car sales. Among major foreign brands, the sales of the Korean brand increased slightly, while the sales of the other four major brands decreased slightly. The mainstream price range of new - energy passenger cars was higher than that of traditional fuel passenger cars [51]. - Demand - Batteries and Chargers: The price of lead - acid batteries remained flat, and the growth rate of the number of public charging piles slowed down. As of June 2025, the number of national charging piles was 4,096,000. As of July 31, 2025, the average price of 48V/20AH waste lead - acid batteries in Zhejiang was 394 yuan per set [53][56].