红枣市场周报：阶段性补货，红枣震荡走高-20250801

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou jujube futures rose, with a weekly increase of 4.55%. The decline in sample - point inventory, increased arrivals in the sales area, and downstream periodic replenishment supported the price increase of high - quality jujubes. The new - season jujube crop is in the critical fruit - setting period, and the market focuses on the weather in the production area. The estimated new - season jujube production is 56 - 62 million tons, a decrease compared to 2022 and 2024, but the reduction is less than that in 2023. Overall, the price increase of high - quality jujubes supports the firm operation of jujube futures prices, but the short - term driving force is limited due to the cooling of the weather theme [9][11]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - Market Review: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou jujube futures rose this week, with a weekly increase of 4.55% [9][11]. - Market Outlook: As of the week of July 31, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 10,039 tons, a decrease of 51 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.51% and a year - on - year increase of 81.11%. The arrival of goods in the sales area increased, and downstream periodic replenishment supported the price increase of high - quality jujubes. The new - season jujube crop is in the critical fruit - setting period, and the weather risk has decreased as the maximum temperature in Xinjiang will drop in the next few days. The estimated new - season production is 56 - 62 million tons, a 5 - 10% decrease compared to 2022 and a 20 - 25% decrease compared to 2024 [9]. - Future Trading Tips: Pay attention to the impact of weather and the consumer end [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou jujube futures rose this week, with a weekly increase of 4.55% [11]. - Futures Positions: As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in jujube futures was - 19,933 lots [16]. - Futures Warehouse Receipts: As of this week, the number of Zhengzhou jujube warehouse receipts was 9,188 [17]. - Futures Spread: As of this week, the spread between the 2509 and 2601 contracts of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange jujube futures was - 1,165 yuan/ton [21]. - Basis: As of this week, the basis between the spot price of Hebei grey jujube and the main contract of jujube futures was - 940 yuan/ton [24]. - New - Season Purchase Price: As of August 1, 2025, the purchase price of jujube bulk goods in Aksu was 4.8 yuan/kg, in Alar was 5.2 yuan/kg, and in Kashgar was 6 yuan/kg [27]. - First - Grade Jujube Price: As of August 1, 2025, the wholesale price of first - grade grey jujube in Cangzhou, Hebei was 4.45 yuan/jin, and in Henan was 4.40 yuan/jin [31]. - Super - Grade Jujube Price: As of August 1, 2025, the wholesale price of super - grade grey jujube in Cangzhou, Hebei was 9.91 yuan/kg, and in Henan was 9.8 yuan/kg [33]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - Supply - Side - Inventory: As of the week of July 31, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 10,039 tons, a decrease of 51 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.51% and a year - on - year increase of 81.11% [37]. - Supply - Side - Production Forecast: The jujube crop is growing well, and the jujube production in the 2024/25 season is expected to recover [42]. - Demand - Side - Export Volume: In June 2025, China's jujube export volume was 1,765,107 kg, a month - on - month decrease of 20.82%. From January to June, the cumulative export volume was 17,115,674 kg, a month - on - month increase of 11.50% [45]. - Demand - Side - BOCE Trading: This week, the order volume of BOCE Xinjiang Jujube Good Brand was not traded [49]. 3.4 Option Market and Futures - Stock Correlation - Option Market: The implied volatility of at - the - money options of jujube this week is presented in the figure [51]. - Stock Market - Haoxiangni: The price - to - earnings ratio of Haoxiangni is presented in the figure [53].