白糖市场周报：多空因素交织，白糖震荡运行-20250801

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract decreased by about 2.43%. Internationally, the rainy season has brought good production prospects for major Asian sugar - producing countries, and strong production signs in Brazil have cast a shadow of loose supply on the raw sugar market. However, the lower - than - expected ATR in Brazil's central - southern region and potential demand from countries like Pakistan, the Philippines, and Iran provide some support. Domestically, the price difference between domestic and international markets has opened the profit window for out - of - quota imports, releasing import pressure. On the demand side, the hot summer has led to increased demand for food and beverage industries, and the seasonal consumption of cold drinks has recovered, supporting the price. Overall, the sugar market is expected to fluctuate due to the combination of peak domestic demand and increased imports and expected global supply [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - Future factors to watch include consumption and exports of Brazilian and Indian sugar. International sugar market: The rainy season in Asia and strong production in Brazil lead to a supply - loose expectation, but lower ATR in Brazil's central - southern region and potential demand support prices. Domestic sugar market: The opening of the out - of - quota profit window releases import pressure, and the peak consumption season provides support. The overall market is expected to fluctuate [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: - The price of the ICE US Sugar 10 - month contract fluctuated this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.43%. As of July 22, 2025, the non - commercial long - position of ICE No. 11 sugar decreased by 2.65% month - on - month to 198,761 contracts, and the non - commercial short - position increased by 0.86% month - on - month to 258,490 contracts. The non - commercial net position was - 59,729 contracts, a decrease of 14.65% month - on - month [8]. - The net position of the top 20 in Zhengzhou sugar futures this week was 3,472 contracts, and the number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts was 19,443 [21]. - Spot Market: - As of August 1, the sugar price in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 6,100 yuan/ton, and the spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,900 yuan/ton [25]. - As of July 29, 2025, the estimated import processing price (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) of Brazilian sugar was 5,761 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.89%; the in - quota price was 4,533 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.87%. The estimated import processing price (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) of Thai sugar was 5,828 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.88%; the in - quota price was 4,585 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.88% [28]. - As of last week, the in - quota profit of imported Brazilian sugar was 1,427 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.26% from the previous week; the out - of - quota profit was 199 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18.44% from the previous week. The in - quota profit of imported Thai sugar was 1,375 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.41% from the previous week; the out - of - quota profit was 132 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25.42% from the previous week [34]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - Supply Side: - By the end of May 2025, the 2024/25 sugar - making season had ended. The total sugar production in China was 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03% year - on - year [38]. - As of May 30, 2025, the industrial inventory was 3.0483 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 322,100 tons [42]. - In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a significant year - on - year increase. From January to June 2025, the cumulative sugar imports were 1.04 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.7% [46]. - Demand Side: - As of May 31, 2025, the cumulative sugar sales in China were 8.1138 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.00%, and the sugar sales ratio was 72.69%, a month - on - month increase of 11.45% [50]. - As of June 30, 2025, the monthly output of refined sugar was 337,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.61%, and the monthly output of soft drinks was 1.84285 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.24% [55]. 3.4 Option Market - Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options for sugar this week is presented in the chart of the implied volatility of the underlying of the Sugar 2509 contract, but specific data is not described in text [56]. 3.5 Sugar Futures - Stock Correlation Market - The chart of the price - to - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry is provided, but specific data is not described in text [60].