碳酸锂市场周报：供给收减需求渐暖，锂价或将有所支撑-20250801

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is expected to have some support for prices due to reduced supply and warming demand. The industry inventory is slightly decreasing but still at a high level, and more effective demand is needed to drive inventory reduction. It is recommended to conduct short - term long - position trading at low prices with light positions and control risks [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Market Performance: The main contract of lithium carbonate had a weekly decline of 14.41% with an amplitude of 14.51%, and the closing price of the main contract was 68,920 yuan/ton [4]. - Macro Environment: The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability, implementing more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, and expanding consumer demand [4]. - Fundamentals: Overseas miners have a strong price - holding sentiment, and lithium ore prices are firm. Supply may decrease due to increased smelter costs and industrial policies. Downstream buyers are currently on the sidelines but may increase inventory as the off - season transitions to the peak season. The industry inventory is slightly decreasing but still high [4]. - Strategy: Light - position short - term long - position trading at low prices, with attention to trading rhythm and risk control [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 Futures Price - The futures price of lithium carbonate is oscillating weakly. As of August 1, 2025, the closing price of the main contract was 68,920 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 11,600 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread was - 420 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 660 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2.2 Spot Price - The spot price of lithium carbonate is weakening. As of August 1, 2025, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 71,350 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,550 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 2,430 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10,050 yuan/ton [14]. 3.3 Upstream Market 3.3.1 Lithium Spodumene - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) increased. As of August 1, 2025, the average price was 810 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 70 US dollars/ton. The US dollar - RMB spot exchange rate was 7.193, a week - on - week increase of 0.54% [18]. 3.3.2 Lithium Mica - The price of lithium mica increased. As of August 1, 2025, the average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 2,340 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 273 yuan/ton. The average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone was 6,195 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,255 yuan/ton [23]. 3.4 Industry Situation 3.4.1 Supply - Import decreased and production increased. As of June 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 17,697.62 tons, a decrease of 3,448.16 tons from May, a decline of 16.31% and a year - on - year decline of 9.63%. The monthly export volume was 429.653 tons, an increase of 142.92 tons from May, an increase of 49.84% and a year - on - year decline of 14.28%. The monthly production was 44,100 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from May, an increase of 4.75% and a year - on - year increase of 5%. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a month - on - month decline of 5% and a year - on - year decline of 32% [28]. 3.4.2 Demand - Hexafluorophosphate Lithium: The price increased, and the production increased. As of August 1, 2025, the average price was 50,250 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 800 yuan/ton. As of June 2025, the monthly production was 161,150 tons, an increase of 2,650 tons from May, an increase of 1.67% and a year - on - year increase of 35.25% [31]. - Lithium Iron Phosphate: The price was flat, and the monthly production decreased. As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 32,650 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change. As of June 2025, the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 203,300 tons, a decrease of 6,800 tons from May, a decline of 3.24% and a year - on - year increase of 31.16%. The monthly operating rate was 52%, a month - on - month increase of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 0% [34]. - Ternary Materials: The price of some types was flat, and the production decreased. As of June 2025, the monthly production of ternary materials was 59,000 tons, a decrease of 6,200 tons from May, a decline of 9.51% and a year - on - year increase of 13.46%. The monthly operating rate was 51%, a month - on - month decline of 4% and a year - on - year decline of 4%. As of the latest data this week, the prices of 811 - type, 622 - type, and 523 - type ternary materials remained stable [39]. - Lithium Manganate: The price increased, and the monthly production decreased. As of June 2025, the monthly production of lithium manganate was 10,800 tons, a decrease of 300 tons from May, a decline of 2.7% and a year - on - year increase of 61.19%. As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium manganate was 30,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1,000 yuan/ton [44]. - Lithium Cobaltate: The price increased, and the monthly production decreased. As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium cobaltate was 225,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3,000 yuan/ton. As of June 2025, the monthly production of lithium cobaltate was 12,400 tons, a decrease of 700 tons from May, a decline of 5.34% and a year - on - year increase of 58.97% [47]. - New Energy Vehicles: The sales volume increased, and the export volume increased year - on - year. As of June 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 44.32%, a month - on - month increase of 0.33% and a year - on - year increase of 9.12%. The monthly production was 1,268,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 0.16%; the sales volume was 1,329,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 1.68%. The cumulative export volume was 1.06 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 75.21% [49][55]. 3.5 Options Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium of the synthetic underlying asset is 0.13, indicating a positive arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of at - the - money option contracts and fundamental conditions, it is recommended to build a long - straddle position to bet on increased volatility [58].