库存增加、表需回落，螺纹期价高位回调

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The market is shifting from sentiment-driven to reality-checking, and rebar may enter a range-bound consolidation. It is recommended to conduct short-term trading on the RB2510 contract, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [9]. - In the consumer off-season, the apparent demand for rebar has declined, inventory has increased, and steel prices have faced downward pressure. It is suggested to buy slightly out-of-the-money put options [61]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights 3.1.1 Market Review - As of August 1st, the closing price of the rebar main contract was 3203 yuan/ton (-153), and the spot price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3390 yuan/ton (-100) [7]. - Rebar production decreased slightly to 211.06 million tons (-0.9) [7]. - In the consumer off-season, the apparent demand declined. The current period's apparent demand was 203.41 million tons (-13.17), a year - on - year decrease of 12.21 million tons [7]. - Factory inventory decreased, social inventory increased, and total inventory rose. The total rebar inventory was 546.29 million tons (+7.65), a year - on - year decrease of 196.08 million tons [7]. - The steel mill profitability rate was 65.37%, a 1.73 - percentage - point increase from last week and a 58.88 - percentage - point increase from last year [7]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Macro: Overseas, the US June PCE data accelerated, dampening the Fed's September rate - cut expectations; the US - Mexico tariff agreement was extended by 90 days. Domestically, there were new progress in China - US economic and trade talks, and the Politburo meeting required governance of disorderly competition and capacity management [9]. - Supply and demand: Rebar weekly production decreased slightly, with a capacity utilization rate of 46.27% and an electric - arc furnace steel start - up rate of 74.21% for three consecutive weeks. Terminal demand was average, apparent demand declined, and inventory increased [9]. - Cost: Coking coal prices fluctuated from continuous limit - up to limit - down, and iron ore prices declined, weakening cost support [9]. - Technical: The RB2510 contract decreased in volume, with the daily K - line testing the support around MA20 (3200). The MACD indicator showed a high - level death cross of DIFF and DEA, and the red bar shrank [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures prices were under pressure and weakened this week. The RB2510 contract was weaker than the RB2601 contract, with a spread of - 54 yuan/ton on the 1st, a week - on - week decrease of 11 yuan/ton [11][15]. - Rebar warehouse receipts decreased, and the net short position of the top 20 holders increased. On August 1st, the warehouse receipt volume was 85034 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2993 tons; the net short position was 84955 contracts, an increase of 93791 contracts from the previous week [17][21]. - Spot prices decreased this week, and the basis strengthened. On August 1st, the spot price of Hangzhou rebar was 3390 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the national average price was 3405 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 66 yuan/ton. The basis on the 1st was 187 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 73 yuan/ton [23][27]. 3.3 Upstream Market - This week, the spot price of iron ore decreased, while that of coke increased. On August 1st, the price of 61% Australian Macfarlane powder ore in Qingdao Port was 821 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of 11 yuan/dry ton; the spot price of first - class metallurgical coke in Tianjin Port was 1520 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton [29][33]. - The arrival volume at 47 ports decreased this period, and port inventory decreased. From July 21st - 27th, 2025, the total arrival volume at 47 ports was 2319.7 million tons, a decrease of 192.1 million tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 14222.01 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 173.67 million tons [35][38]. - This week, the capacity utilization rate of coking plants decreased, and coke inventory declined. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 73.48% (-0.13%); coke daily output was 51.83 (-0.09), and coke inventory was 46.52 (-3.6) [40][42]. 3.4 Industry Situation 3.4.1 Supply Side - In June 2025, China's crude steel output was 8318 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%; from January to June, the output was 51483 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.0% [44][46]. - The weekly rebar production decreased. On August 1st, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.46%, unchanged from last week; the weekly rebar production of 139 building material production enterprises on July 31st was 211.06 million tons, a decrease of 0.9 million tons from last week [47][49]. - The electric - arc furnace steel start - up rate increased. On August 1st, the average start - up rate of 90 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills was 74.21%, a 2.18 - percentage - point increase from the previous week [50][52]. - The total rebar inventory increased. On July 31st, the in - factory inventory of 137 building material production enterprises was 162.15 million tons, a decrease of 3.52 million tons from last week; the inventory in 35 major cities was 384.14 million tons, an increase of 11.17 million tons from last week [53][55]. 3.4.2 Demand Side - From January to June 2025, the new housing start - up area decreased by 20% year - on - year, and infrastructure investment increased by 4.6% year - on - year [56][58]. 3.5 Options Market - In the consumer off - season, the apparent demand for rebar declined, inventory increased, and steel prices faced downward pressure. It is recommended to buy slightly out - of - the - money put options [61].