菜籽类市场周报：国际关税政策影响，菜系维持区间波动-20250801

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For rapeseed oil, short - term trading is recommended. This week, rapeseed oil futures fluctuated and closed higher. The 09 - contract closed at 9524 yuan/ton, up 67 yuan/ton from the previous week. The current growth of Canadian rapeseed is still in the "weather - dominated" stage. The recent weather in Canada is favorable, and the resumption of rapeseed trade between China and Australia adds long - term supply pressure. High - frequency data shows that palm oil production in Malaysia increased in July while exports declined, and palm oil stocks are expected to continue to accumulate. However, Indonesia's exports have increased significantly, and its inventory is at a low level. News from the biodiesel sectors in the US and Indonesia is positive for the oil market. In China, it is the off - season for oil consumption, the supply of vegetable oil is relatively abundant, and the inventory pressure of rapeseed oil mills remains high. But the oil mill's operating rate has decreased, and the supply pressure in the third quarter has reduced [8][9]. - For rapeseed meal, short - term trading is recommended, and attention should be paid to China - US and China - Canada economic and trade relations. This week, rapeseed meal futures fluctuated widely. The 09 - contract closed at 2675 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The US soybean's good rate is at a high level in the same period, and the weather in the US soybean - producing areas is good, with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest. The new round of China - US economic and trade talks has no major breakthrough. In China, the operating rate of oil mills is relatively high, and soybean meal stocks continue to accumulate, suppressing the price of the meal market. There is an expectation of a decline in pig inventory, and the government emphasizes the reduction of soybean meal substitution, reducing demand expectations. However, the uncertainty of purchases in the fourth quarter supports the long - term market. For rapeseed meal itself, the arrival of rapeseed in the near - term is less, reducing supply pressure, and the demand for rapeseed meal in aquaculture is seasonally increasing. But the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal [11][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Rapeseed Oil: The 09 - contract of rapeseed oil futures closed at 9524 yuan/ton, up 67 yuan/ton from the previous week. Short - term trading is recommended. The weather in Canada is favorable for rapeseed growth, and the resumption of China - Australia trade adds supply pressure. High - frequency data on palm oil is mixed, and in China, the off - season consumption and high inventory pressure are countered by reduced production pressure and fewer third - quarter purchases [8][9]. - Rapeseed Meal: The 09 - contract of rapeseed meal futures closed at 2675 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. Short - term trading is recommended, and attention should be paid to China - US and China - Canada economic and trade relations. The US soybean situation is good, and in China, high oil - mill operating rates, expected pig - inventory decline, and substitution policies reduce demand, but fourth - quarter purchase uncertainty and seasonal demand support the market [11][12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price and Position: This week, rapeseed oil futures fluctuated and closed down, with a total position of 189,113 lots, down 21,670 lots from last week. Rapeseed meal futures fluctuated widely, with a total position of 419,679 lots, down 63,829 lots from the previous week [17]. - Top 20 Net Positions: The top 20 net positions of rapeseed oil futures increased, and those of rapeseed meal futures decreased [24]. - Futures Warehouse Receipts: The registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil are 3,487 lots, and those of rapeseed meal are 1,200 lots [29]. - Spot Price and Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9,680 yuan/ton, up from last week, and the basis is + 66 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong, Jiangsu is 2,600 yuan/ton, slightly up from last week, and the basis is - 75 yuan/ton [37][43]. - Futures Inter - month Spread: The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil is + 58 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed meal is + 266 yuan/ton, both at medium levels in recent years [49]. - Futures - Spot Ratio: The 09 - contract ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal is 3.56, and the average spot price ratio is 3.688 [53]. - Price Spread between Oils and Meals: The 09 - contract spread of rapeseed oil to soybean oil is 1,250 yuan/ton and has narrowed this week. The 09 - contract spread of rapeseed oil to palm oil is 614 yuan/ton and has widened this week. The 09 - contract spread of soybean meal to rapeseed meal is 335 yuan/ton, and the spot spread is 280 yuan/ton [62][68]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation 3.3.1 Rapeseed - Supply - Side Inventory and Import: As of July 25, 2025, the total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 150,000 tons. The estimated arrival volumes of rapeseed in August, September, and October 2025 are 490,000 tons, 530,000 tons, and 395,000 tons respectively [74]. - Import and Pressing Profit: As of July 31, the spot pressing profit of imported rapeseed is + 475 yuan/ton [78]. - Oil Mill Pressing Volume: As of the 30th week of 2025, the rapeseed pressing volume of major coastal oil mills is 72,000 tons, an increase of 19,000 tons from last week, and the operating rate this week is 17.61% [82]. - Monthly Import Volume: In June 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed is 184,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 69.69% and a month - on - month decrease of 150,900 tons [86]. 3.3.2 Rapeseed Oil - Supply - Side Inventory and Import: As of the end of the 30th week of 2025, the inventory of imported and pressed rapeseed oil in China is 786,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.21%. In June 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed oil is 150,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.67% and a month - on - month increase of 39,100 tons [90]. - Demand - Side Consumption and Production: As of June 30, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 476,900 tons, and the catering revenue is 470.76 billion yuan [94]. - Demand - Side Contract Volume: As of the end of the 30th week of 2025, the contract volume of imported and pressed rapeseed oil in China is 116,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.24% [98]. 3.3.3 Rapeseed Meal - Supply - Side Inventory: As of the end of the 30th week of 2025, the inventory of imported and pressed rapeseed meal in China is 17,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 54.55% [102]. - Supply - Side Import Volume: In June 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed meal is 270,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.17% and a month - on - month increase of 75,600 tons [106]. - Demand - Side Feed Production: As of May 31, 2025, the monthly output of feed is 2,762,100 tons [110]. 3.4 Options Market Analysis As of August 1, the implied volatility of rapeseed meal options is 21.37%, a decrease of 1.95% from the previous week, and it is at a slightly high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset [114].