鸡蛋市场周报：现货市场旺季不旺，拖累盘面再度下探-20250801

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The egg market has seen the futures price decline again this week. The current high egg - laying hen inventory and the pressure from newly - opened egg - laying hens lead to sufficient egg supply. The spot market price is continuously below expectations. However, high temperatures in many regions have reduced the egg - laying rate of hens, alleviating short - term supply pressure. Terminal demand is gradually picking up, and there is still an expectation of price increase among farmers. Affected by the bearish sentiment in the commodity market and high inventory, the near - month contracts are weakly adjusted, while the far - month contracts are significantly more resistant to decline. The report suggests a light - position trial of going long on far - month contracts [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Market Trend: This week, the egg 09 contract closed at 3484 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 144 yuan/500 kilograms from the previous week [8]. - Outlook: High inventory and low - expected spot prices coexist with reduced egg - laying rates due to high temperatures and improving demand. Near - month contracts are weak, and far - month contracts are more resistant [8]. - Strategy: Light - position trial of going long on far - month contracts [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price and Position: The egg futures 09 contract declined again. The position volume was 226,040 lots, a decrease of 13,679 lots from the previous week. The net position of the top 20 was - 37,010, with a slight increase in net short position compared to last week [14]. - Futures Warehouse Receipts: As of Friday, the registered egg warehouse receipts were 22 [18]. - Spot Price and Basis: The egg spot price was 3173 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 214 yuan/500 kilograms from the previous week. The basis between the active 09 contract futures price and the spot average price was - 311 yuan/ton [24]. - Futures Inter - month Spread: The 9 - 1 spread of eggs was - 135 yuan/500 kilograms, at a relatively low level in the same period [28]. - Related Commodity Spot Prices: As of July 31, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.45 yuan/kg, and the average wholesale price of 28 kinds of monitored vegetables was 4.41 yuan/kg [34]. 3.3 Industry Chain - Supply Side: As of June 30, 2025, the national egg - laying hen inventory index was 111.91, a month - on - month increase of 0.92%. The national new - chick index was 76.07, a month - on - month decrease of 28.76% [40]. - Egg - laying Hen Elimination: As of June 30, 2025, the national eliminated egg - laying hen index was 104.09, a month - on - month decrease of 4.22%. The national elimination age of hens was 501 days [45]. - Feed Raw Material Prices: As of July 31, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2404.02 yuan/ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was 2920 yuan/ton [49]. - Feed Price and Breeding Profit: As of July 25, 2025, the egg - laying hen breeding profit was - 0.06 yuan/hen, and the average price of egg - laying hen compound feed was 2.72 yuan/kg [56]. - Egg - laying Hen Chick and Eliminated Hen Prices: As of July 25, 2025, the average price of egg - laying hen chicks in the main production areas was 3.88 yuan/chick, and the average price of eliminated hens was 11.28 yuan/kg [62]. - Egg Exports: In May 2025, China's egg export volume was 12,711.37 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.87% and a month - on - month decrease of 81.14 tons [66]. 3.4 Representative Company The report mentions the price - earnings ratio change of Xiaoming Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis is provided [68].