玉米类市场周报:需求支撑相对有限,期货低位偏弱震荡-20250801
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-01 09:07
- Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For corn, the US corn has a high excellent rate and good output prospects, pressuring international corn prices. In the domestic market, Northeast trade inventories are low, and feed - using enterprises only make rigid - demand purchases. Wheat substitution, import corn auctions, and deferred pick - up policies also restrict the corn market. Corn futures prices are weak this week [8][10]. - For corn starch, due to continuous production losses, the industry's operating rate is at a low level in recent years, reducing supply pressure. However, downstream demand is in the traditional off - season, and the supply - demand situation remains loose. Corn starch futures prices are oscillating at a low level recently [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary - Corn - Strategy: Trade short - term [9]. - Market review: This week, corn futures oscillated and closed lower. The closing price of the main 2509 contract was 2297 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton from the previous week [10]. - Market outlook: As of July 27, 2025, the US corn excellent rate was 73%. In the domestic market, Northeast trade inventories are low, and feed - using enterprises make rigid - demand purchases. Wheat substitution, import corn auctions, and deferred pick - up policies restrict the market. The overall trading is cautious, and the futures price is still weak [10]. - Corn Starch - Strategy: Participate short - term [13]. - Market review: Dalian corn starch futures oscillated narrowly. The closing price of the main 2509 contract was 2668 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton from the previous week [14]. - Market outlook: Due to continuous losses, the industry's operating rate is low, reducing supply pressure. But downstream demand is in the off - season, and the supply - demand is still loose. As of July 30, the national corn starch inventory was 129.3 tons, a weekly decrease of 1.37%, a monthly increase of 0.15%, and a year - on - year increase of 15.14%. The futures price oscillates at a low level [14]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price and Position Changes - Corn futures' September contract oscillated and closed down, with a total position of 746,716 lots, a decrease of 105,390 lots from last week. Corn starch futures' September contract oscillated narrowly, with a total position of 158,356 lots, a decrease of 32,163 lots from last week [20]. - Top Twenty Net Position Changes - The top twenty net position of corn futures was - 20,885 this week, compared to - 12,000 last week, with an increase in net short positions. The top twenty net position of starch futures was - 18,086 this week, compared to - 16,822 last week, also with an increase in net short positions [27]. - Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 153,041 lots, and the registered warehouse receipts of corn starch were 0 lots [33]. - Spot Price and Basis Trends - As of July 31, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2404.02 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active September contract and the spot average price was + 107 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2850 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2900 yuan/ton, remaining stable this week. The basis between the September contract of corn starch and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 182 yuan/ton [38][44]. - Futures Inter - monthly Spread Changes - The 9 - 1 spread of corn was 84 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 9 - 1 spread of starch was 87 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [50]. - Futures Spread Changes - The spread between the September contracts of starch and corn was 371 yuan/ton. In the 31st week of 2025, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 400 yuan/ton, an increase of 44 yuan/ton from last week [59]. - Substitute Spread Changes - As of July 31, 2025, the average spot price of wheat was 2440.5 yuan/ton, and that of corn was 2404.02 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 36.48 yuan/ton. In the 31st week of 2025, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch was 140 yuan/ton, narrowing by 35 yuan/ton from last week [64]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation - Corn - Supply Side - As of July 25, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 88.2 tons, a decrease of 5.8 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 0.7 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons from last week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 210.6 tons, a weekly decrease of 10.3 tons, and the shipping volume was 39.3 tons, a weekly increase of 5.3 tons [54]. - In June 2025, China's ordinary corn imports were 160,000 tons, a decrease of 760,000 tons (82.61%) from the same period last year and a decrease of 30,000 tons from the previous month [72]. - As of July 31, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 30.58 days, a decrease of 0.29 days from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.94%, and a year - on - year increase of 1.83% [76]. - Demand Side - As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the national pig inventory was 424.47 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. The inventory of breeding sows was 40.43 million, an increase of 10,000 from the previous month and 103.7% of the normal reserve of 39 million [80]. - As of July 25, 2025, the self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit was 62.16 yuan/head, and the profit from purchasing piglets was - 71.39 yuan/head [84]. - As of July 31, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 67 yuan/ton. The corn alcohol processing profit was - 435 yuan/ton in Henan, - 612 yuan/ton in Jilin, and - 193 yuan/ton in Heilongjiang [88]. - Corn Starch - Supply Side - As of July 30, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 3.797 million tons, a decrease of 5.19% [92]. - From July 24 - 30, 2025, the national corn processing volume was 545,100 tons, an increase of 43,600 tons from last week; the national corn starch output was 267,800 tons, an increase of 32,600 tons from last week; the operating rate was 51.76%, an increase of 6.3% from last week. As of July 30, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.293 million tons, a weekly decrease of 1.37%, a monthly increase of 0.15%, and a year - on - year increase of 15.14% [96]. 3.4. Options Market Analysis - As of August 1, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2509 contract of corn was 9.76%, a decrease of 1.14% from 10.9% last week. The implied volatility oscillated and declined this week, being at a relatively high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [99].