Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the macro and fundamental factors of the natural rubber market weakened from strong, leading to a high - level correction in rubber prices. The import rubber market reported falling offers, with traders rotating positions, closing arbitrage positions, and increasing far - month shipments. The futures market weakened significantly, the spot price of domestic rubber declined, and downstream buyers were cautious and hesitant [7]. - The global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. In Yunnan, heavy rain has led to a shortage of rubber, and concentrated milk factories are under pressure to deliver orders and have to raise prices to purchase raw materials. In Hainan, local rainfall has disrupted the seasonal increase in raw material output. The spot market's bearish sentiment has strengthened, and local processing plants are less willing to replenish high - priced raw materials, leading to a continued decline in the glue purchase price. Recently, the total spot inventory at Qingdao Port has shown a slight increase, with bonded inventories decreasing and general trade inventories increasing. The arrival and warehousing volume of overseas goods remain low, but the overall outbound volume is lower than expected due to terminal观望 [7]. - In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire and all - steel tire enterprises has declined due to maintenance. Although the resumption of production of maintenance enterprises next week will boost the overall capacity utilization rate, some enterprises have maintenance plans at the beginning of the month, so the overall capacity utilization rate is expected to be slightly adjusted, and the overall improvement space is limited [7]. - The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14300 - 14800 in the short term, and the nr2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12000 - 12600 in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Market Review: The macro and fundamental factors weakened, causing rubber prices to correct from high levels. The import rubber market reported falling offers, and the futures market weakened. The spot price of domestic rubber declined, and downstream buyers were cautious [7]. - Market Outlook: The global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. Yunnan has rain - induced shortages, and Hainan's output increase is slow. The spot market is bearish, and processing plants are less willing to replenish raw materials. Qingdao Port's inventory shows a slight increase. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises has declined due to maintenance, and the overall improvement space is limited next week [7]. - Strategy Recommendation: The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 14300 - 14800, and the nr2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 12000 - 12600 in the short term [7]. 3.2 Futures Market - Price Movement: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures closed down 8.18% week - on - week, and the main contract price of 20 - grade rubber closed down 8.6% week - on - week [12]. - Position Analysis: Not detailed in the summary, only mentions the changes in the top 20 positions of Shanghai rubber and 20 - grade rubber [13][15]. - Inter - month Spread: As of August 1, the spread between September and January of Shanghai rubber was - 850, and the spread between September and October of 20 - grade rubber was - 45 [21]. - Warehouse Receipts: As of August 1, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 177,630 tons, a decrease of 4,390 tons from last week; 20 - grade rubber warehouse receipts were 39,716 tons, an increase of 2,318 tons from last week [26]. 3.3 Spot Market - Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price and Shanghai Rubber Basis: As of July 31, the price of state - owned whole latex was 14,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,000 yuan/ton from last week [28]. - 20 - grade Rubber Basis and Non - standard Basis: As of July 31, the basis of 20 - grade rubber was 383 yuan/ton, an increase of 272 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 310 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton from last week [35]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Upstream: As of July 31, the field glue price in the Thai natural rubber raw material market was 54.3 (- 1) Thai baht/kg, and the cup lump price was 47.7 (- 2.5) Thai baht/kg. As of August 1, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was 46.6 US dollars/ton, an increase of 11.4 US dollars/ton from last week. As of July 31, the glue price in Yunnan was 14,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week; the fresh latex price in Hainan was 14,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton from last week [38][41]. - Import: In June 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 463,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.21% and a year - on - year increase of 33.95%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.1257 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 26.47% [44]. - Inventory in Qingdao: As of July 27, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 640,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,000 tons, an increase of 0.91%. The bonded area inventory was 75,800 tons, a decrease of 2.70%; the general trade inventory was 564,600 tons, an increase of 1.42%. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses decreased by 0.38 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.63 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.67 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.14 percentage points [48]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Tire Production: As of July 31, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.98%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.08 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.19 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 59.26%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.97 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.20 percentage points [51]. - Tire Exports: In June 2025, China's tire exports were 717,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.31%. From January to June, China's cumulative tire exports were 4.1213 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.34%. Among them, the export volume of passenger car tires was 279,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.76%. From January to June, the cumulative export volume of passenger car tires was 1.6144 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.62%; the export volume of truck and bus tires was 407,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.00% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.11%. From January to June, the cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires was 2.3347 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.34% [54]. - Domestic Demand (Heavy - truck Sales): In July 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 42%. Cumulatively, from January to July this year, China's heavy - truck market sold about 622,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 11% [57].
瑞达期货天然橡胶市场周报-20250801
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-01 09:56