瑞达期货甲醇市场周报-20250801

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2380 - 2430 in the short - term [7] - The average price of the domestic port methanol market rose this week, showing a post - decline volatile consolidation trend. The inland methanol market mainly increased. The upstream enterprises raised prices due to factors such as increased external procurement by northwest olefin plants, some device overhauls, and low enterprise inventories, and downstream buyers followed passively [8] - The output of restored domestic methanol production capacity this week was more than the loss of overhauled and reduced production capacity, with a slight increase in overall output. The inventory of inland enterprises decreased slightly this week, but the inventory may increase in some regions due to device restoration and load increase. The port methanol inventory continued to accumulate this week, mainly in the South China region. The inventory is expected to continue to accumulate in the short - term, but the impact of weather on unloading speed needs attention [8] - In terms of demand, after the restart of Zhongmei Mengda olefin enterprise, its load is increasing. Zhejiang Xingxing stopped production in the middle of the week. After hedging, the olefin industry's start - up rate increased slightly. There is still room for the olefin industry's start - up rate to rise [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2380 - 2430 in the short - term [7] - Market review: The average price of the domestic port methanol market rose this week, with prices in Jiangsu ranging from 2370 - 2500 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2380 - 2490 yuan/ton. The inland market mainly increased, with the price in the northern line of Erdos ranging from 2025 - 2060 yuan/ton and the receiving price in Dongying from 2295 - 2305 yuan/ton [8] - Market outlook: The overall methanol output increased slightly. The inland enterprise inventory decreased slightly, and the port inventory continued to accumulate, mainly in the South China region. The olefin industry's start - up rate increased slightly, and there is still room for growth [8] 3.2. Futures Market - Price trend: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou methanol futures fluctuated and closed down this week, with a - 5% decline [11] - Inter - delivery spread: As of August 1, the MA 9 - 1 spread was - 92 [16] - Position analysis: Not provided in the content - Warehouse receipts: As of August 1, there were 8546 Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts, a decrease of 1588 from last week [22] 3.3. Spot Market - Domestic spot price: As of August 1, the mainstream price in Taicang, East China was 2395 yuan/ton, a decrease of 92.5 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in Inner Mongolia, Northwest China was 2062.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.5 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East China and Northwest China was 332.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 105 yuan/ton from last week [28] - Foreign spot price: As of July 31, the CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port was 272 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 13 US dollars/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the main Chinese port was 61 US dollars/ton, an increase of 13 US dollars/ton from last week [34] - Basis: As of August 1, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was 2 yuan/ton, an increase of 33.5 yuan/ton from last week [37] 3.4. Upstream Situation - Coal and natural gas prices: As of July 30, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal was 665 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of July 31, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.1 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.02 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [41] 3.5. Industry Situation - Production and capacity utilization: As of July 31, China's methanol production was 1,930,125 tons, an increase of 31,300 tons from last week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 85.36%, a 1.64% increase from the previous week [44] - Inventory: As of July 30, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 808,400 tons, an increase of 82,600 tons from the previous data. The inventory of sample production enterprises was 324,500 tons, a decrease of 15,300 tons from the previous period, and the order backlog of sample enterprises was 230,700 tons, a decrease of 14,100 tons from the previous period [49] - Import volume and profit: In June 2025, China's methanol import volume was 1.2202 million tons, a 5.58% decrease from the previous week. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5.3773 million tons, a 14.68% year - on - year decrease. As of July 31, the methanol import profit was 21.7 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.5 yuan/ton from last week [52] 3.6. Downstream Situation - Start - up rate: As of July 31, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin devices was 86.39%, a 0.32% increase from the previous week [55] - Disk profit: As of August 1, the domestic methanol - to - olefin disk profit was - 881 yuan/ton, an increase of 216 yuan/ton from last week [59]