橡胶月度报告-20250801

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rubber market's fundamentals are moderately weak, with expectations of increased supply. Demand is supported but also faces pressure, and prices are likely to remain range - bound with external macro factors amplifying price fluctuations [27] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In July, the three major rubber futures followed the overall commodity market sentiment, experiencing a "rise and fall" pattern. The main contract of natural rubber (RU) rose 4.11% with a decrease of 68,006 in positions; the 20 - rubber (NR) main contract rose 0.95% with a decrease of 10,797 in positions; the synthetic rubber (BR) main contract rose 3.19% with an increase of 12,719 in positions. The commodity market in July was driven by the "anti - involution" expectations led by "polysilicon" and "coking coal", followed by a rapid cooling of sentiment due to exchange intervention and a disappointing Politburo meeting. Rubber's fundamentals are weak and stable, and it is prone to amplifying fluctuations with external sentiment [6] 3.2 Data Analysis - Raw Material Prices: As of July 31, Thai glue was 54.5 Thai baht/kg and cup - lump was 47.7 Thai baht/kg, with a slight decline of about 0.5 Thai baht/kg from the beginning of the month. In China, Yunnan glue was 14,000 yuan/ton and Hainan raw material was 13,500 yuan/ton, affected by typhoons and showing a weakening trend. Overall, raw material prices are under pressure due to the upcoming peak tapping season [8] - Imports: In the first half of 2025, China's natural rubber imports totaled 3.1258 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 654,400 tons or 26.47%. With improved supply overseas and reduced overseas diversion pressure, imports are expected to continue growing [10] - Inventory: As of July 25, Qingdao Free Trade Zone's spot inventory was 75,777 tons, with a slight decrease from the beginning of the month and an increase of 15,246 tons year - on - year. General trade spot inventory was 564,607 tons, showing a slight increase and an increase of 150,728 tons year - on - year. China's third - party inventory was 1.293702 million tons, with little change and an increase of 79,895 tons year - on - year. Overall, July's natural rubber inventory was almost the same as the end of last month, with greater inventory pressure than last year [13] - Butadiene and Styrene - Butadiene Rubber: In early July, China's butadiene supply pressure was high, but as prices fell, downstream demand for restocking increased and supply pressure eased. By the week of August 1, the theoretical production loss of styrene - butadiene rubber enterprises was 175.4286 yuan/ton, and the loss situation was partially alleviated [14] - Styrene - Butadiene Rubber Inventory: By the end of July, the combined inventory of styrene - butadiene rubber sample production and trading enterprises was 31,300 tons, a decrease of 9.11% from the end of last month. In July, China's styrene - butadiene rubber production was 129,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.47% and a year - on - year increase of 27.05%. The capacity utilization rate was 67.03%, a month - on - month increase of 1.36% and a year - on - year increase of 11.6%. Factory inventory decreased, but trader inventory removal was slow [18] - Tire Capacity Utilization: In July, the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.06%, a month - on - month increase of 0.97% and a year - on - year increase of 2.14%. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.03%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.76% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.05% [19] - Tire Inventory: In July 2025, the finished tire inventory of Shandong tire sample enterprises decreased month - on - month. As of July 31, the all - steel tire inventory in Shandong factories was 3.15 million, a month - on - month decrease of 67,000 and a year - on - year decrease of 295,000. The semi - steel tire inventory was 10.54 million, a month - on - month decrease of 220,000 and a year - on - year increase of 2.25 million [21] - Tire Exports: In the first half of 2025, China's truck and bus tire exports totaled 2.3347 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.34%. Small passenger car tire exports totaled 1.6144 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.62% with a slowdown in growth [23] 3.3 Future Outlook - From the perspective of downstream tire demand, all - steel tire exports are strong, reducing inventory pressure and boosting enterprise operating rates, while semi - steel tire inventory removal is slow, suppressing operating rates. Overall, rubber demand has support but also faces pressure [27] - In terms of raw material costs, although prices are relatively firm due to weather disturbances, they are under pressure as the peak tapping season approaches [27] - Regarding supply, rubber imports are increasing as overseas supply recovers, and inventory pressure is greater than last year but the increase is limited [27] - Geopolitical factors: The cease - fire between Thailand and Cambodia has led to the disappearance of geopolitical premiums [27] - Overall, rubber fundamentals are moderately weak, with expected supply increases. Demand is affected by overseas tariffs, and there is no obvious increase in tire demand. Prices are likely to remain range - bound, and external macro factors can amplify price fluctuations [27]