Core Views - Low inventory and supply contradictions support the bottom, but the easing of tariff disturbances and the seasonal weakening of consumption will cause Shanghai copper to fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be paid to domestic policy expectations and the rhythm of inventory accumulation [5] - The inventory of copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange has dropped to 72,543 tons, and the recovery of import demand supports the tightness of the spot market [4] - The port inventory of copper concentrate has dropped to 560,900 tons, and the processing fee remains at a low level of -$42.63 per ton, increasing the pressure on smelting plants to cut production [4] - The United States only imposes a 50% tariff on semi-finished copper products, exempting raw materials such as cathode copper. The decline in the COMEX premium has dragged down LME copper [4] - The growth rate of power grid investment has slowed down, and air conditioner production has entered the off-season. The end-users' acceptance of high prices is limited, which restricts the consumption elasticity [4] Copper Futures Market Data (Weekly) - The latest price of the main Shanghai copper contract is 78,400 yuan per ton, with a weekly decline of 1.07%, a position of 167,671 lots, and a trading volume of 80,943 lots [6] - The latest price of international copper is 69,530 yuan per ton, with a weekly decline of 1.18%, a position of 4,914 lots, and a trading volume of 4,289 lots [6] - The latest price of LME copper for three months is $9,803 per ton, with a weekly decline of 0.96%, a position of 239,014 lots, and a trading volume of 11,075 lots [6] - The latest price of COMEX copper is $566.95 per pound, with a weekly decline of 1.71%, a position of 104,219 lots, and a trading volume of 25,868 lots [6] Copper Spot Data (Weekly) - The latest price of Shanghai Nonferrous 1 copper is 78,330 yuan per ton, with a weekly decline of 1,120 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 1.41% [10] - The latest price of Shanghai Wumaomao is 78,985 yuan per ton, with a weekly decline of 720 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 0.9% [10] - The latest price of Guangdong Southern Storage is 78,890 yuan per ton, with a weekly decline of 620 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 0.78% [10] - The latest price of Yangtze River Nonferrous is 79,120 yuan per ton, with a weekly decline of 710 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 0.89% [12] - The latest price of Shanghai Nonferrous premium is 110 yuan per ton, with a weekly decline of 130 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 54.17% [12] - The latest price of Shanghai Wumaomao premium is 85 yuan per ton, with a weekly decline of 80 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 48.48% [12] - The latest price of Guangdong Southern Storage premium is 85 yuan per ton, with a weekly decline of 65 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 43.33% [12] - The latest price of Yangtze River Nonferrous premium is 115 yuan per ton, with a weekly decline of 60 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 34.29% [12] - The latest price of the LME copper (spot/three months) premium is -$51.71 per ton, with a weekly increase of $16.53 and a weekly decline rate of 24.22% [12] - The latest price of the LME copper (three months/15 months) premium is -$92.25 per ton, with a weekly increase of $10.37 and a weekly decline rate of 10.11% [12] Copper Advanced Data (Weekly) - The latest price of copper import profit and loss is -249.88 yuan per ton, with a weekly increase of 232.62 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 48.21% [13] - The latest price of copper concentrate TC is -$42.75 per ton, with a weekly increase of $0.42 and a weekly decline rate of 0.97% [13] - The latest copper-aluminum ratio is 3.7801, with a weekly decline of 0.0635 and a weekly decline rate of 1.65% [13] - The latest refined scrap price difference is 805.43 yuan per ton, with a weekly decline of 35.31 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 4.2% [13] Copper Inventory (Weekly) - The total warehouse receipt of Shanghai copper is 18,083 tons, with a weekly decline of 7,424 tons and a weekly decline rate of 29.11% [17] - The total warehouse receipt of international copper is 3,313 tons, with a weekly decline of 1,354 tons and a weekly decline rate of 29.01% [17] - The inventory of Shanghai copper is 73,423 tons, with a weekly decline of 11,133 tons and a weekly decline rate of 13.17% [17] - The registered warehouse receipt of LME copper is 108,225 tons, with a weekly decline of 4,375 tons and a weekly decline rate of 3.89% [17] - The cancelled warehouse receipt of LME copper is 19,400 tons, with a weekly increase of 7,150 tons and a weekly increase rate of 58.37% [17] - The inventory of LME copper is 127,625 tons, with a weekly increase of 2,775 tons and a weekly increase rate of 2.22% [19] - The registered warehouse receipt of COMEX copper is 109,453 tons, with a weekly increase of 1,404 tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.3% [19] - The unregistered warehouse receipt of COMEX copper is 143,978 tons, with a weekly increase of 8,246 tons and a weekly increase rate of 6.08% [19] - The inventory of COMEX copper is 253,431 tons, with a weekly increase of 9,650 tons and a weekly increase rate of 3.96% [19] - The port inventory of copper ore is 409,000 tons, with a weekly decline of 48,000 tons and a weekly decline rate of 10.5% [19] - The social inventory is 418,200 tons, with a weekly increase of 4,300 tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.04% [19] Copper Midstream Production (Monthly) - In June 2025, the monthly output of refined copper was 1.302 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%. The cumulative output was 7.363 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.5% [21] - In June 2025, the monthly output of copper products was 2.214 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%. The cumulative output was 11.765 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [21] Copper Midstream Capacity Utilization (Monthly) - In June 2025, the total annual capacity of refined copper rods was 15.84 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 62.32%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.18 percentage points, and a year-on-year increase of 1.78 percentage points [23] - In June 2025, the total annual capacity of scrap copper rods was 8.19 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 32.01%, a month-on-month increase of 3.08 percentage points, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.98 percentage points [23] - In June 2025, the total annual capacity of copper strips was 3.59 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 68.73%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.55 percentage points, and a year-on-year decrease of 2.22 percentage points [24] - In June 2025, the total annual capacity of copper rods was 2.2865 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 51.52%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.97 percentage points, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.37 percentage points [24] - In June 2025, the total annual capacity of copper tubes was 2.783 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 72.25%, a month-on-month decrease of 10.35 percentage points, and a year-on-year increase of 1.01 percentage points [24] Copper Element Imports (Monthly) - In June 2025, the monthly import volume of copper concentrate was 2.34969 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2%. The cumulative import volume was 14.757457 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6% [26] - In June 2025, the monthly import volume of anode copper was 68,548 tons, a year-on-year increase of 2%. The cumulative import volume was 382,709 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 17% [26] - In June 2025, the monthly import volume of cathode copper was 300,506 tons, a year-on-year increase of 5%. The cumulative import volume was 1,646,147 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9% [26] - In June 2025, the monthly import volume of scrap copper was 183,244 tons, a year-on-year increase of 8%. The cumulative import volume was 1,145,405 tons, a year-on-year increase of 0% [26] - In June 2025, the monthly import volume of copper products was 460,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.5%. The cumulative import volume was 2,630,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6% [26]
铜周报：铜价延续上涨趋势-20250803
Dong Ya Qi Huo·2025-08-03 01:45