广发期货《农产品》日报-20250804

1. Investment Ratings - The provided reports do not mention any industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views 2.1. Oil and Fat Industry - Palm oil prices are under downward pressure due to declining export data and potential increases in production and inventory. Domestic palm oil is expected to have a phased adjustment, with attention on the 8800 yuan support level. - Soybean oil prices are affected by the unoptimistic outlook for US soybean exports in the fourth quarter and good weather in the US Midwest, which strengthens the expectation of a bumper harvest. However, cost support and increasing demand may limit the decline in prices and the basis quote. - Overall, the oil and fat market is expected to fluctuate and rise [1]. 2.2. Pig Industry - The pig spot market has stabilized, but short - term prices are still not optimistic due to the weak supply - demand situation. The spot is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern, with strong resistance for the near - month 09 contract. The far - month contracts are affected by policies, and while blind short - selling is not recommended, the impact of hedging funds should be noted [3]. 2.3. Corn Industry - In the short term, the corn market's rise and fall are limited, and the market will maintain an interval - oscillating pattern. Attention should be paid to subsequent policy auctions. In the long term, the supply in the third quarter is tight, which supports prices, while the supply in the fourth quarter may be loose [5]. 2.4. Sugar Industry - Internationally, there is no new driving force for the sugar market. The Brazilian sugarcane yield and quality in June decreased, and the market speculates that India may have a bumper harvest and export. The short - term price of raw sugar is expected to have a bottom, and attention should be paid to the pressure at 17 - 17.5 cents/pound. Domestically, the import volume in June increased, the demand is weak, and the market is expected to be bearish after a rebound [8]. 2.5. Meal Industry - The US soybean market is weak due to the lack of positive news and strong expectations of a bumper harvest. Brazilian soybeans are relatively firm, and the pressure on US soybeans is significant. In China, the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal is rising, and the short - term supply is sufficient. However, there are concerns about future supply after October. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [10]. 2.6. Cotton Industry - The supply pressure of cotton is increasing marginally, while the weakening of demand is weakening marginally. The short - term domestic cotton price is expected to oscillate within an interval, and the price will be under pressure after the new cotton is listed [12]. 2.7. Egg Industry - The supply of eggs is sufficient, but high - temperature weather affects the egg production rate. The demand for eggs is expected to first decrease and then increase this week. Next week, the egg price in some areas may decline, but then there may be an increase in demand and an upward space for the spot price. The futures price remains weak due to production capacity [16]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1. Oil and Fat Industry 3.1.1. Price Changes - Soybean oil: The spot price in Jiangsu was 8380 yuan, down 40 yuan (-0.48%); the futures price of Y2509 was 8192 yuan, down 48 yuan (-0.58%); the basis of Y2509 increased by 8 yuan (4.44%); the warehouse receipt decreased by 13709 (-100%). - Palm oil: The spot price in Guangdong was 8920 yuan, down 70 yuan (-0.78%); the futures price of P2509 was 8900 yuan, down 82 yuan (-0.91%); the basis of P2509 increased by 12 yuan (150%); the warehouse receipt remained unchanged. - Rapeseed oil: The spot price in Jiangsu was 9600 yuan, down 80 yuan (-0.83%); the futures price of OI2509 was 9510 yuan, down 111 yuan (-1.15%); the basis of OI2509 increased by 28 yuan (52.54%); the warehouse receipt remained unchanged [1]. 3.1.2. Spread Changes - The rapeseed - soybean oil spread decreased by 40 yuan (-3.17%); the soybean - palm oil spread increased by 30 yuan (5.26%) in the spot market and 34 yuan (4.58%) in the 2509 contract [1]. 3.2. Pig Industry 3.2.1. Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: The price of the main contract decreased by 220 yuan (-1.56%); the 9 - 11 spread increased by 220 (733.33%); the main contract's open interest decreased by 7850 (-14.80%). - Spot: Pig prices in various regions increased, with the largest increase of 400 yuan in Henan [3]. 3.2.2. Industry Indicators - The daily slaughter volume decreased by 200 (-0.37%); the weekly white - strip price decreased by 0.1 (-0.48%); the self - breeding profit decreased by 28.7 yuan (-31.61%); the purchased - pig breeding profit decreased by 52.7 yuan (-282.58%); the monthly inventory of reproductive sows increased by 10,000 (0.02%) [3]. 3.3. Corn Industry 3.3.1. Corn - Futures: The price of corn 2509 decreased by 24 yuan (-1.04%); the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 15 yuan (-15.96%); the warehouse receipt decreased by 2500 (-1.60%). - Spot: The price in Jinzhou Port decreased by 10 yuan (-0.43%); the north - south trade profit decreased by 10 yuan (-111.11%); the import profit decreased by 29 yuan (-6.58%); the number of remaining vehicles in Shandong deep - processing plants increased by 152 (70.70%); the trading volume increased by 50092 (3.18%) [5]. 3.3.2. Corn Starch - Futures: The price of corn starch 2509 decreased by 23 yuan (-0.86%); the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 4 yuan (-4.60%); the spread between starch and corn increased by 1 yuan (0.27%); the warehouse receipt decreased by 2573 (-100%). - Spot: The prices in Changchun and Weifang remained unchanged; the basis increased by 23 yuan (766.67%); the profit in Shandong increased by 20 yuan (16.67%); the open interest increased by 4920 (1.79%) [5]. 3.4. Sugar Industry 3.4.1. Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: The price of sugar 2601 decreased by 11 yuan (-0.19%); the price of sugar 2509 decreased by 11 yuan (-0.19%); the ICE raw sugar main contract decreased by 0.11 cents (-0.67%); the 1 - 9 spread remained unchanged; the main contract's open interest decreased by 21949 (-7.92%); the warehouse receipt decreased by 47 (-0.24%). - Spot: The price in Nanning decreased by 20 yuan (-0.33%); the price in Kunming increased by 20 yuan (0.34%); the basis in Nanning decreased by 9 yuan (-3.66%); the basis in Kunming increased by 31 yuan (40.79%) [8]. 3.4.2. Industry Indicators - The national sugar production increased by 119.89 million tons (12.03%); the sales volume increased by 152.10 million tons (23.07%); the industrial inventory decreased by 32.21 million tons (-9.56%); the sugar import increased by 8 million tons (160%) [8]. 3.5. Meal Industry 3.5.1. Price Changes - Soybean meal: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged; the futures price of M2509 decreased by 10 yuan (-0.33%); the basis increased by 10 yuan (8.33%); the warehouse receipt decreased by 22562 (-100%). - Rapeseed meal: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 10 yuan (-0.38%); the futures price of RM2509 decreased by 36 yuan (-1.32%); the basis increased by 26 yuan (22.61%); the warehouse receipt increased by 1200. - Soybean: The spot price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged; the futures price of the main contract decreased by 22 yuan (-0.53%); the basis increased by 22 yuan (11.40%) [10]. 3.5.2. Spread Changes - The soybean meal 09 - 01 spread increased by 3 yuan (7.69%); the rapeseed meal 09 - 01 spread decreased by 19 yuan (-6.19%); the oil - meal ratio decreased slightly; the soybean - rapeseed meal spread increased [10]. 3.6. Cotton Industry 3.6.1. Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: The price of cotton 2509 decreased by 105 yuan (-0.76%); the price of cotton 2601 decreased by 65 yuan (-0.47%); the ICE US cotton main contract decreased by 0.28 cents (-0.41%); the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 40 yuan (-26.67%); the main contract's open interest decreased by 26389 (-7.02%); the warehouse receipt decreased by 115 (-1.27%). - Spot: The price of Xinjiang 3128B decreased by 130 yuan (-0.85%); the CC Index 3128B decreased by 145 yuan (-0.94%); the FC Index M 1% decreased by 35 yuan (-0.26%) [12]. 3.6.2. Industry Indicators - The industrial inventory decreased by 2.09 million tons (-2.3%); the import volume decreased by 1 million tons (-25%); the textile industry's inventory decreased year - on - year; the yarn inventory days increased by 1.13 days (4.1%); the grey cloth inventory days increased by 0.63 days (1.7%) [12]. 3.7. Egg Industry 3.7.1. Price Changes - The price of the egg 09 contract decreased by 48 yuan (-1.34%); the price of the egg 10 contract decreased by 55 yuan (-1.64%); the egg spot price in the production area decreased by 0.03 yuan (-0.87%); the basis increased by 20 yuan (5.41%); the 9 - 10 spread increased by 7 yuan (3.23%). - The price of egg - laying chicks remained unchanged; the price of culled hens increased by 0.84 yuan (17.50%); the egg - feed ratio increased by 0.35 (15.56%); the breeding profit increased by 20.65 yuan (62.61%) [15][16].