大越期货棉花周报-20250804

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, cotton prices turned and accelerated their decline. The main reasons were the less - than - expected Sino - US negotiations and the upcoming new cotton harvest, with downstream buyers not willing to accept price increases [4]. - The Sino - US trade negotiations were postponed, which was below market expectations, leading to a general weakening of commodities. The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton is about to shift to 01. Recently, the decline of 09 was greater than that of 01, and 01 started to trade at a premium to 09. Currently in the consumption off - season, and the market outlook for the "Golden September and Silver October" is unclear. The 01 contract should be treated with a weak and volatile mindset [4]. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include a reduction in previous Sino - US reciprocal tariffs and a year - on - year decline in commercial inventories. Negative factors are the postponement of trade negotiations, the consumption off - season, a general decline in foreign trade orders, increased inventories, and the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton [5]. 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review - This week, cotton prices dropped rapidly. The ICAC July report showed that the global cotton production in the 25/26 season is expected to be 2590 tons, and consumption is 2560 tons. The USDA July report indicated that the 25/26 season production is 2578.3 tons, consumption is 2571.8 tons, and the ending inventory is 1683.5 tons. In June, China's textile and clothing exports were $27.31 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. China imported 30,000 tons of cotton in June, a year - on - year decrease of 82.1%, and imported 110,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. The Ministry of Agriculture's July forecast for the 25/26 season is a production of 6.25 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.23 million tons [4]. 3.2 Daily Tips No information related to daily tips is provided in the report. 3.3 Today's Focus No information related to today's focus is provided in the report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Global Supply and Demand: According to the USDA July report, the global cotton production in the 25/26 season is 2578.3 tons, consumption is 2571.8 tons, and the ending inventory is 1683.5 tons. The ICAC report shows that the global cotton production in the 25/26 season is 2590 tons, and consumption is 2560 tons. The Ministry of Agriculture's forecast for China in the 25/26 season is a production of 6.25 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.23 million tons [4]. - Price and Inventory: The average domestic cotton 3128B price is expected to be between 15,000 - 17,000 yuan per ton, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be between 75 - 100 cents per pound [13]. 3.5 Position Data No information related to position data is provided in the report.