大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250804

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the polyolefin industry. 2. Core Views - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. For LLDPE, the macro - driven growth has subsided, and it is in the off - season of agricultural film demand with weak downstream demand. For PP, the downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving is weak, and the industrial inventory is at a neutral level [4][7]. - The main influencing factors for LLDPE and PP include cost support on the positive side and weak demand on the negative side. The main logic is the interaction between cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies [6][9]. 3. Summary by Categories LLDPE - Fundamentals: The official manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, still in the contraction range. The short - term anti - involution sentiment - driven increase has subsided, and oil prices have also fallen. It is the off - season for agricultural films, and the demand for other films is flat, with many downstream enterprises shutting down for maintenance. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7340 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is 23, and the premium/discount ratio is 0.3%, which is neutral [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 49.1 tons (-7.2), which is neutral [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish signal [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, showing a bearish signal [4]. - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today, considering the subsiding of macro - driven growth, off - season demand, and weak downstream demand [4]. - Factors: Positive factor is cost support; negative factor is weak demand [6]. PP - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, the macro situation shows a contraction in the manufacturing industry. It is the off - season for downstream demand, and affected by high temperature and heavy rain in summer, the demand for pipes and plastic weaving is weak. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7150 (-0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7]. - Basis: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 52, and the premium/discount ratio is 0.7%, showing a bullish signal [7]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 56.5 tons (-1.6), showing a bearish signal [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish signal [7]. - Main Position: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, showing a bearish signal [7]. - Expectation: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today, due to the subsiding of macro - driven growth and weak downstream demand [7]. - Factors: Positive factor is cost support; negative factor is weak demand [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has been increasing year by year, with a significant increase of 20.5% expected in 2025E. The import dependence has been decreasing, and the consumption growth rate has fluctuated, with an increase of 1.4% in 2024 [15]. - Polypropylene: The production capacity has also been growing from 2018 to 2024, with an expected increase of 11.0% in 2025E. The import dependence has shown some fluctuations, and the consumption growth rate was 8.4% in 2024 [17].