大越期货PTA、MEG早报-20250804

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For PTA, last week some PTA plants reduced production or stopped operations, and the supply - demand pattern was acceptable. However, major suppliers actively sold goods, leading to a weak operation of the PTA spot basis. With a cooling macro - atmosphere, commodity price corrections, insufficient cost - end support, and weak off - season demand from downstream terminals, it is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate in the short term. Also, the PTA processing margin was once compressed below 200, and attention should be paid to whether there will be new changes in PTA plants under continuously low processing fees [5]. - For MEG, on Friday, the price center of ethylene glycol declined weakly and market negotiations were stalemated. The in - port delay of ships was obvious this week due to weather factors, and it is expected that the visible inventory will still decline on Monday. Recently, the ethylene glycol operating rate has rebounded to around 69%. After the restart and production of Phase II 1 of Zhejiang Petrochemical and Xinjiang Guanghui, there is still room for an increase in domestic production. Fundamentally, the supply - demand of ethylene glycol will shift to inventory accumulation, and the available spot in the market will gradually become more abundant. It is expected that the price center of ethylene glycol will be adjusted weakly in the short term, and subsequent attention should be paid to cost - end changes [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the given content 2. Daily Tips PTA - Fundamentals: On Friday, the trading atmosphere improved. There were transactions for mid - and early - August at a discount of 10 - 15 to the 09 contract, with the price negotiation range around 4720 - 4780. For late - August, the mainstream was at a discount of 10 to the 09 contract, and some were slightly lower. There were transactions for mid - September at a premium of 0 - 2 to the 09 contract. The mainstream spot basis today is at a discount of 13 to the 09 contract [6]. - Basis: The spot price is 4740, and the basis of the 09 contract is - 4, with the futures price at a premium. It is neutral [6]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 3.82 days, a decrease of 0.17 days compared to the previous period. It is bullish [6]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. It is bearish [6]. - Main Position: The net position is short, and short positions are increasing. It is bearish [6]. MEG - Fundamentals: On Friday, the price center of ethylene glycol declined weakly, and market negotiations were stalemated. The spot basis strengthened to a premium of 71 - 74 yuan/ton to the 09 contract. The intention of traders to follow up was weak. In the US dollar market, the center of the ethylene glycol outer market weakened slightly. Recent shipments were negotiated at around 522 - 525 US dollars/ton, and recent shipments were traded at around 521 - 523 US dollars/ton, with some traders participating in sales. The negotiation ranges for domestic and foreign market transactions were 4465 - 4494 yuan/ton and 521 - 524 US dollars/ton respectively [7]. - Basis: The spot price is 4480, and the basis of the 09 contract is 75, with the futures price at a discount. It is neutral [7]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 42.74 tons, a decrease of 4.14 tons compared to the previous period. It is bullish [7]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. It is bullish [7]. - Main Position: The main net position is short, and short positions are increasing. It is bearish [7]. 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the given content 4. Fundamental Data PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the PTA production capacity, production, supply, demand, inventory, and other data showed different trends. For example, in 2025, the production capacity continued to increase, and the production and supply also changed with the load rate. The demand was affected by factors such as polyester production capacity and load rate [10]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the total operating rate, production, supply, demand, and port inventory of ethylene glycol also showed different trends. The production and supply were affected by the operating rate and new production capacity, while the demand was related to polyester production [11]. Price - Spot Price: The spot price of naphtha CFR Japan increased by 1.000 to 567.380 US dollars/ton; the spot price of p - xylene (PX) CFR Taiwan, China decreased by 1.000 to 842 US dollars/ton; the CCFEI price index of domestic PTA decreased by 80.000 to 4740 yuan/ton; the CCFEI price index of domestic ethylene glycol decreased by 5.000 to 4480 yuan/ton [12]. - Futures Price: The prices of TA01, TA05, TA09, EG01, EG05, and EG09 all changed to varying degrees. For example, TA01 decreased by 58.000 to 4782 yuan/ton [12]. - Basis and Margin: The basis of PTA and MEG contracts and the processing margin of PTA and the profit of MEG also changed. The PTA processing margin decreased by 244.269 to 195.21 yuan/ton [12]. 5. Impact Factor Summary - Positive Factors: Some PTA plants are planned for maintenance in August, and the supply - demand is expected to improve [8]. - Negative Factors: From the demand side, at the end of the rush - to - export period and in the off - season of domestic demand, the trend of weakening terminal demand is certain [8]. 6. Current Main Logic and Risk Points - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - aspect. Attention should be paid to the cost end, and for the market rebound, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [9].