沪镍、不锈钢早报-20250804

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - 沪镍: Last week, nickel prices trended weakly. The short - term impact of the macro - anti - involution has been digested, and spot trading did not improve with price drops. Downstream demand is mainly for immediate needs. The ore price and ferronickel price are weakly stable, with some ferronickel quotes rising, but the cost line remains low. Stainless steel is in the traditional consumption off - season in July and August, and the inventory of the 300 series increased slightly this week. Although new energy vehicle production and sales data are good, the loading volume of ternary batteries is decreasing, and nickel demand in the new energy sector is declining. The long - term oversupply situation remains unchanged. The 2509 contract of Shanghai nickel is expected to fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - 不锈钢: The spot price of stainless steel remained flat. In the short term, the nickel ore price is weakly stable, ocean freight is firm, and the ferronickel price is weakly stable with some slight increases. The cost line is still low, and stainless steel consumption has entered the off - season. The 2509 contract of stainless steel is expected to fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - 镍: On August 1st, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 120,650 yuan, down 600 yuan from July 31st; the price of 1 Jinchuan nickel was 121,850 yuan, down 550 yuan; the price of 1 imported nickel was 119,950 yuan, down 550 yuan; the price of nickel beans was 119,150 yuan, down 600 yuan. The Shanghai nickel main contract was 119,770 yuan, down 60 yuan from July 31st, and the LME nickel price was 15,020 US dollars, up 70 US dollars [12]. - 不锈钢: On August 1st, the price of the stainless steel main contract was 12,840 yuan, up 35 yuan from July 31st. The cold - rolled coil prices in Wuxi, Foshan, Hangzhou, and Shanghai remained unchanged [12]. Inventory Information - 镍: As of August 1st, the LME nickel inventory was 209,082 tons, an increase of 390 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel warehouse receipts were 21,374 tons, a decrease of 331 tons; the total inventory was 230,456 tons, an increase of 59 tons [15]. - 不锈钢: On August 1st, the inventory in Wuxi was 61,950 tons, in Foshan was 324,400 tons, and the national inventory was 1,111,200 tons, a decrease of 7,400 tons from the previous period. Among them, the inventory of the 300 series was 676,700 tons, an increase of 6,700 tons. The stainless steel warehouse receipts were 102,986 tons, a decrease of 248 tons [19][20]. Cost Information - 镍: The price of red clay nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 58 US dollars per wet ton, and for Ni0.9% was 29 US dollars per wet ton, both unchanged from July 31st. The ocean freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang was 11.5 US dollars per ton, and to Tianjin Port was 12.5 US dollars per ton, also unchanged. The price of high - nickel wet ton (8 - 12) was 912.5 yuan per nickel point, unchanged, and the price of low - nickel wet ton (below 2) was 3,300 yuan per ton, an increase of 100 yuan [23]. - 不锈钢: The traditional production cost of stainless steel was 12,796 yuan, the cost of scrap steel production was 13,471 yuan, and the cost of low - nickel + pure nickel production was 16,302 yuan [25]. - 镍 import cost: The converted import price was 121,513 yuan per ton [28]. Multi - and Short - Factors - Likely to be bullish: New energy vehicle data continued to perform well, with production and sales increasing year - on - year in June, and there are anti - involution policies [7]. - Likely to be bearish: Domestic production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, there are no new demand growth points, and the long - term oversupply situation remains unchanged. The nickel ore and ferronickel prices are weakly stable, and the cost line remains low [7].