棉花早报-20250804

Key Points of the Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint The report analyzes the cotton market comprehensively, concluding that the overall situation is neutral. The 01 contract of Zhengzhou cotton should be treated with a weak and oscillating mindset. The reasons include the delay of Sino - US trade negotiations, the upcoming peak season's unclear prospects during the current off - season, and the approaching contract change for the main Zhengzhou cotton contract [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review No information provided in the content. 3.2 Daily Prompt - Fundamentals: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/2026 cotton production, consumption, and inventory. For example, the ICAC July report predicts a global production of 2590000 tons and consumption of 2560000 tons; the USDA July report forecasts a production of 2578300 tons, consumption of 2571800 tons, and an ending inventory of 1683500 tons. In June, China's textile and clothing exports were $27.31 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. China's cotton imports in June were 30000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 82.1%, and cotton yarn imports were 110000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. The overall situation is neutral [4]. - Basis: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 15260 yuan, with a basis of 1475 yuan (for the 01 contract), indicating a premium over futures, which is a bullish signal [4]. - Inventory: The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture estimates the ending inventory for the 2025/2026 period in July to be 8.23 million tons, which is a bearish factor [4]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [4]. - Main Position: The main position is long, but the net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, which is a bullish signal [4]. - Expectation: The delay of Sino - US trade negotiations is lower than market expectations, leading to a general weakening of commodities. The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton is about to change to 01. Recently, the decline of the 09 contract is greater than that of the 01 contract, and the 01 contract begins to have a premium over the 09 contract. Currently in the off - season of consumption, the prospects for the "Golden September and Silver October" market are unclear, and the 01 contract should be considered with a weak and oscillating mindset [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided in the content. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Global Supply - Demand Balance: The USDA July report shows that the global cotton production in 2025/2026 is 2578300 tons, consumption is 2571800 tons, and ending inventory is 1683500 tons. The ICAC report predicts a global production of 2590000 tons and consumption of 2560000 tons in 2025/2026 [4][8][9]. - China's Supply - Demand Balance: The Ministry of Agriculture's July 2025/2026 forecast shows a production of 625000 tons, imports of 140000 tons, consumption of 740000 tons, and an ending inventory of 823000 tons [4]. 3.5 Position Data The main position is long, but the net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear [4].