大越期货沪铜早报-20250804

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View The copper market is influenced by multiple factors. The fundamentals are neutral with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap - copper policy being relaxed. The 7 - month manufacturing PMI dropped by 0.4 percentage points to 49.3%. The base - difference is neutral with a spot price of 78325 and a base - difference of - 75. Inventory shows mixed trends, with an increase in overall copper inventory on August 1st but a decrease in SHFE copper inventory last week. The market is bearish on the disk as the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average which is downward. However, the main position is net long and increasing. Given the slowdown of Fed rate cuts, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and pressure on off - season consumption, copper prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: Neutral. Smelting enterprises cut production, scrap - copper policy is relaxed, and the July manufacturing PMI is 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from last month [2]. - Base - difference: Neutral. Spot price is 78325, base - difference is - 75, indicating a discount to futures [2]. - Inventory: Neutral. On August 1st, copper inventory increased by 3550 to 141750 tons, while SHFE copper inventory decreased by 880 tons to 72543 tons last week [2]. - Disk: Bearish. The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average which is downward [2]. - Main Position: Bullish. The main net position is long and increasing [2]. - Expectation: Copper prices will fluctuate and adjust due to slow Fed rate cuts, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and pressure on off - season consumption [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - 利多: Domestic policy easing [3]. - 利空: Trade war escalation [3]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight balance [20]. - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations from 2018 - 2024. For example, in 2024, production is 12060000 tons, imports are 3730000 tons, exports are 460000 tons, apparent consumption is 15340000 tons, actual consumption is 15230000 tons, and the supply - demand balance is a surplus of 110000 tons [22]. Other Information - Inventory: The bonded - area inventory has rebounded from a low level [14]. - Processing Fee: Processing fees have declined [16].