沪锌期货早报-20250804

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai zinc (ZN2509) is expected to oscillate and weaken in the short - term. The previous trading day saw Shanghai zinc in an oscillating trend, with a star - shaped candlestick, shrinking trading volume, and both long and short positions reducing, with the reduction of short positions being slightly more. Technically, the price is above the long - term moving average with strong support, the short - term KDJ indicator is declining and operating in the weak area, the trend indicator is declining, the long - position strength is rising, the short - position strength is falling, and the long - and short - position forces are starting to be in a stalemate [2][21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - In April 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.153 million tons, consumption was 1.1302 million tons, with a supply surplus of 22,700 tons. From January to April, global zinc plate production was 4.4514 million tons, consumption was 4.5079 million tons, with a supply shortage of 56,500 tons. From January to April, global zinc ore production was 4.0406 million tons, showing a bullish sign [2]. - The basis of spot zinc is +30 (spot price is 22,350), indicating a neutral situation [2]. - On August 1, LME zinc inventory decreased by 3,975 tons to 100,825 tons compared to the previous day, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrant decreased by 76 tons to 14,982 tons, showing a bullish sign [2]. - The previous trading day, Shanghai zinc showed an oscillating trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was downward, showing a bearish sign [2]. - The main net position is short, and the short position is decreasing, showing a bearish sign [2]. Market Quotes Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes on August 1 - For the zinc futures contract 2509, the previous settlement price was 22,440, the opening price was 22,300, the highest price was 22,425, the lowest price was 22,280, the closing price was 22,320, the settlement reference price was 22,345, down 120 compared to the previous settlement, with a trading volume of 105,121 lots, a trading value of 1.17465677 billion yuan, and an open interest of 108,084 lots, a decrease of 2,397 lots [3]. Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes on August 1 - The price of zinc concentrate in Linzhou was 17,020 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of zinc ingot was 22,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of galvanized sheet in China was 4,100 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized pipe in China was 4,490 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton; the price of zinc alloy in Ningbo was 22,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of zinc powder in Changsha was 27,360 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of zinc oxide in Taizhou was 20,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of secondary zinc oxide in a certain area was 7,761 yuan/ton, up 67 yuan/ton [4]. National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (July 21 - July 31, 2025) - On July 31, the total inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets was 844,000 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons compared to July 24 and an increase of 8,000 tons compared to July 28 [5]. Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report on August 1 - The total zinc warrant in the SHFE was 14,982 tons, a decrease of 76 tons compared to the previous day. Among them, Shanghai had 25 tons, Guangdong had 3,511 tons, Jiangsu had 0 tons, and Tianjin had 11,446 tons [6]. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on July 31 - The LME zinc inventory decreased by 4,250 tons, with the current inventory at 104,675 tons, and the注销占比 (cancellation ratio) was 45.55% [8]. National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary on August 1 - The price of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in Jiyuan, Chenzhou, Kunming, Xi'an, and other places was mostly 17,020 yuan/ton, while in Hechi it was 16,820 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton; in Longnan it was 16,970 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; in Liangshan Prefecture it was 17,020 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton; in Chifeng it was 16,920 yuan/ton [10]. National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes on August 1 - The price of 0 zinc ingots (≥99.995%) from different smelters varied. For example, Hunan Muchuan Taihai's was 22,660 yuan/ton, Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry's was 22,800 yuan/ton, and Guangdong Zhongjin Lingnan's was 22,390 yuan/ton [14]. Domestic Refined Zinc Production in June 2025 - The planned production value in June was 459,700 tons, the actual production was 471,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.67%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%, and 2.63% higher than the planned value. The capacity utilization rate was 87.10%, and the planned production in July was 470,300 tons [16]. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes on August 1 - The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee for 50% - grade varied by region. For example, in Xiangxi it was 3,700 - 3,900 yuan/metal ton, with an average of 3,800 yuan/metal ton; in Huludao it was 3,900 - 4,100 yuan/metal ton, an increase of 200 yuan/metal ton compared to before. The import processing fee for 48% - grade was 60 - 80 US dollars/kiloton, with an average of 70 US dollars/kiloton [18]. Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking Table on August 1 - For the zn2509 contract, in terms of trading volume, CITIC Futures ranked first with 31,843 lots, a decrease of 19,494 lots compared to the previous day. In terms of long positions, CITIC Futures ranked first with 9,405 lots, a decrease of 471 lots. In terms of short positions, CITIC Futures ranked first with 12,265 lots, a decrease of 606 lots [20].