大越期货白糖周报-20250804

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Due to the postponement of China-US trade negotiations falling short of market expectations, overall commodities continued to weaken this week, and sugar prices reached a short-term peak and then declined [4]. - The 09 contract is approaching delivery, and the main contract is about to shift to the 01 contract. As the peak consumption season is coming to an end and external sugar prices continue to fall, Zhengzhou sugar has also shown a volatile downward trend. The 01 contract is short - term weak, and attention should be paid to the support around 5600 [5]. - Bullish factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and short - term low out - of - quota imports. The change in the US cola formula to use sucrose is also positive. Bearish factors are the increase in global sugar production, a surplus in the new annual global supply, the opening of the import profit window when external sugar prices are below 17 cents per pound, and increased import impact [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - This week, with the postponement of China - US trade negotiations falling short of market expectations, overall commodities continued to weaken, and sugar prices reached a short - term peak and then declined. StoneX reported that the global sugar market surplus in the 25/26 season was revised down by 700,000 tons to 3.04 million tons. As of the end of May 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons; the sales rate was 72.69% (compared to 66.17% in the same period last year). In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 390,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 103,200 tons [4]. 2. Daily Prompt - The 09 contract is approaching delivery, and the main contract is about to shift to the 01 contract. As the peak consumption season is coming to an end and external sugar prices continue to fall, Zhengzhou sugar has also shown a volatile downward trend. The 01 contract is short - term weak, and attention should be paid to the support around 5600 [5]. 3. Today's Focus - Not provided 4. Fundamental Data - Bullish factors: The domestic sugar supply - demand balance sheet shows a sugar supply - demand gap, and the medium - to - long - term gap is decreasing. The average domestic sugar spot sales price is around 6000. Since January 2025, the import tariff on syrup has increased, approaching the out - of - quota import tariff on raw sugar. Trump's approval of the cola formula modification is long - term positive for sugar prices. - Bearish factors: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar market surplus in the 25/26 season. Czarnikow predicts a surplus of 7.5 million tons, Datagro predicts 1.53 million tons, StoneX revises it down by 700,000 tons to 3.04 million tons, and USDA predicts 11.397 million tons. Green Pool predicts that the global sugar production in the 25/26 season will increase by 5.3% to 199.1 million tons [8]. - 25/26 annual global white sugar supply - demand balance sheet forecast: The global production is expected to be 202 million tons, a record second - high, with Brazil, India, and Thailand leading the increase. The global consumption is expected to be 198 million tons, with Asian demand growing by 1.3% and African demand growing at the fastest rate of 2.2%. There will be a surplus of 2.7 million tons, shifting from a shortage to a surplus, but institutional forecasts vary. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is 52% - 54%, with inventory pressure easing but still below the long - term average. The global trade volume is expected to be 62 million tons, with Brazil's export share exceeding 50% and Thailand's exports returning to a high level [36]. 5. Position Data - Not provided