大越期货油脂早报-20250804

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high. The Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed by China has led to a rally in the rapeseed sector. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable. The easing of China-US and China-Canada relations has an impact on the market at the macro level [3][5][6]. - The main logical focus is on the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. The current main risk is the El Niño weather [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with the production cut falling short of expectations. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [3][4][5]. - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8400, with a basis of 126, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4]. - Inventory: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year [4]. - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4]. - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have decreased [3]. - Expectation: The soybean oil contract Y2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 8400 [3]. Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report shows neutral results, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [5]. - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9000, with a basis of 90, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [5]. - Inventory: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year [5]. - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [5]. - Main Position: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased [5]. - Expectation: The palm oil contract P2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8500 - 8900 [5]. Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report shows neutral results, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [6]. - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9600, with a basis of 76, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [6]. - Inventory: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year [6]. - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [6]. - Main Position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased [6]. - Expectation: The rapeseed oil contract OI2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9300 - 9700 [6]. Recent利多利空Analysis - 利多: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating a tight supply. It is the palm oil production cut season [7]. - 利空: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high level historically, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats has been continuously increasing. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [7]. Supply and Demand Aspects - Supply: Includes aspects such as imported soybean inventory, soybean oil inventory, soybean meal inventory, oil mill soybean crushing, palm oil inventory, rapeseed oil inventory, rapeseed inventory, and total domestic inventory of oils and fats [8][10][12][14][19][22][24][26]. - Demand: The apparent consumption of soybean oil is mentioned [16].