大越期货天胶早报-20250804

Group 1: Report Core View - The overall fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral, with supply increasing, foreign spot prices strong, domestic inventories rising, and tire operating rates at a high level. The market is dominated by sentiment, and short - term trading is recommended [6]. Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral, with supply starting to increase, foreign spot prices strong, domestic inventories beginning to rise, and tire operating rates at a high level. The base - difference is neutral, the inventory situation is mixed, the price is running below the 20 - day line, the main position is net short with an increase in short positions, and short - term trading is influenced by market sentiment [6]. 2. Fundamental Data Supply - Supply is increasing, and import volume is seasonally declining [8][22]. Demand - Downstream consumption is high, automobile production and sales are seasonally rising, and tire production is at a record high for the same period, but tire industry exports are falling [8][25][31]. Price - The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) fell on August 1st, and the spot price is resistant to decline. The base - difference strengthened on August 1st [10][8][37]. Inventory - The exchange inventory has been continuously decreasing recently, while the inventory in Qingdao area has been slightly increasing [16][19]. 3. Multiple and Short Factors and Main Risk Points Bullish Factors - Downstream consumption is high, spot prices are resistant to decline, and there is anti - involution in the domestic market [8]. Bearish Factors - Supply is increasing, and the inventory in Qingdao area has not seasonally decreased [8].