Report Information - Report Title: Nickel Monthly Report [1] - Date: August 4, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of nickel is expected to be loose, with weakening support at the mine end. The fundamentals of nickel remain in an overall surplus pattern, and the macro - boosting effect is expected to be limited. Nickel prices may have periodic rebounds but will face pressure above. After the macro - sentiment fades, it will return to the surplus trading logic and continue to test cost support. The main operating range of the August index can be referred to as 119,000 - 125,000 yuan, and a band trading strategy should be maintained [8][45] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In July, Shanghai Nickel continued to fluctuate in a narrow range. Affected by domestic macro - policy expectations in the first and middle of the month, it followed the sector to be relatively strong, reaching a maximum of around 125,000 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, as the macro - optimistic sentiment cooled, the price turned down. The Shanghai Nickel index closed at 119,970 yuan/ton, down 0.76% from the end of last month. The total position of the index was 190,000 lots, an increase of 37,484 lots from the end of last month, and the trading volume increased by 1.239 million lots to 4.259 million lots. LME Nickel closed at $14,950/ton, down 1.16% from the end of last month. The total position decreased by 1,820 lots to 237,000 lots, and the trading volume increased by 37,000 lots to 150,000 lots [10] 2. Supply - Demand Analysis (1) Nickel Ore Market - In July, nickel ore supply remained stable, and there is an expectation of a gradual loosening in the future. By the end of July, the average price of 1.5% CIF in the Philippines was $58/wet ton, down $2/wet ton from the end of last month. The domestic trade prices of some nickel ores in Indonesia were flat or slightly down. In June 2025, the nickel ore import volume was 4.3466 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.68% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.21%. From January to June 2025, the total nickel ore import volume was 14.7812 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.36% [12][13] (2) Electrolytic Nickel/Electrowon Nickel Market - The production capacity of electrowon nickel is rapidly releasing. In July, the refined nickel output was 32,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 13.69%. The operating rate of domestic refined nickel enterprises was 61%. The spot trading in July was cold, with the overall trading volume decreasing by 10% - 20% compared with June [19] (3) Ferronickel Market - From January to June, the combined nickel - iron production of China and Indonesia was 1.064 million nickel tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21%. Indonesia's nickel - iron production increased by 27% year - on - year to 926,000 nickel tons. In June 2025, China's nickel - iron import volume was 1.041 million physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 22.8% and a year - on - year increase of 50%. From January to June, the cumulative import volume was about 5.5574 million physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 28.4%. In July, affected by the stainless - steel off - season and overseas tariff policies, the demand for NPI weakened, and the import volume is expected to decline compared with June [23][27] (4) Nickel Sulfate Market - In July, the nickel sulfate output was about 29,100 metal tons (equivalent to 1.322 million physical tons), a month - on - month increase of 17.30% and a year - on - year increase of 4.77%. In August, due to the tightening of raw material supply, some nickel - salt production enterprises plan to continue to cut production or carry out maintenance, and the supply of nickel sulfate is expected to shrink [29] 3. Demand - Side of Fundamentals (1) Real Estate Sector - From January to June, the national real - estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year. The construction area, new - start area, and completion area of houses all decreased. The sales of commercial housing were basically stable, and the inventory continued to decrease. The real - estate sector is still in the process of destocking [33] (2) Automobile Sector - The 2025 automobile trade - in policy will benefit more consumers. In June 2025, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles increased rapidly year - on - year. From January to June 2025, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles were 6.968 million and 6.937 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 41.4% and 40.3% respectively. In June, the export of new - energy vehicles was 205,000, a month - on - month decrease of 3.6% and a year - on - year increase of 1.4 times. From January to June, the export was 1.06 million, a year - on - year increase of 75.2% [36][37] (3) Alloy and Electroplating Industry - The demand for nickel in the alloy and electroplating industry has been relatively stable in recent years. The demand for nickel beans in the new - energy sector has almost reached zero, so the proportion of pure - nickel demand in alloy and electroplating has gradually increased. In June 2025, the total pure - nickel consumption of domestic major nickel - based alloy enterprises was about 1,680 tons, an increase of 180 tons compared with May. The nickel consumption for electroplating in June was about 360 tons, a decrease of 50 tons compared with March [40][42] 4. Market Outlook - The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines and Indonesia is expected to be loose, and the support at the mine end will weaken. In the NPI market, although the nickel - iron price rebounded slightly at the end of the month, the stainless - steel sector is still sluggish. The demand for ternary batteries in the new - energy sector is still flat, and the recovery space of nickel - salt prices is limited. The macro - economic situation has not yet provided substantial support for the demand side. Overall, the nickel price will face pressure above, and the main operating range of the August index can be referred to as 119,000 - 125,000 yuan [45]
镍月报：宏观刺激暂有限，延续成本区域震荡-20250804
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-08-04 03:29