大越期货玻璃早报-20250804

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The "anti - involution" sentiment has subsided, and the production profit of glass has recovered. The cold - repair speed of the industry has slowed down, with the start - up rate and output dropping to historical lows. Deep - processing orders are weaker than in previous years, and terminal demand is weak. The policy benefits have faded, and in the short term, glass is expected to fluctuate mainly [2]. - There is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, but the real - estate terminal demand remains weak, and the follow - up inventory reduction sustainability is questionable. Glass is expected to have a wide - range fluctuating operation [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - Fundamentals: The "anti - involution" sentiment has subsided. Glass production profit has recovered, the cold - repair speed of the industry has slowed down, the start - up rate and output have dropped to historical lows, deep - processing orders are weaker than in previous years, and terminal demand is weak [2]. - Basis: The spot price of float glass in Hebei Shahe is 1164 yuan/ton, the closing price of FG2509 is 1102 yuan/ton, and the basis is 62 yuan. The futures are at a discount to the spot [2]. - Inventory: The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 59.499 million weight boxes, a decrease of 3.87% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [2]. - Disk: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward [2]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position increases [2]. - Expectation: The policy benefits have faded, and in the short term, glass is expected to fluctuate mainly [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors Summary - Positive Factors: Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry [3]. - Negative Factors: The real - estate terminal demand remains weak, the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low, the capital collection of the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, traders and processors are cautious, and the "anti - involution" market sentiment has subsided [4]. 3.3 Main Logic - The glass supply has declined to a relatively low level in the same period, and downstream enterprises have carried out phased replenishment, resulting in a reduction in the glass factory inventory. However, the sustainability of subsequent inventory reduction is questionable, and glass is expected to have a wide - range fluctuating operation [5]. 3.4 Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1102 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.34% from the previous value; the spot price of Shahe Safety large - plate glass is 1164 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.96% from the previous value; the main basis is 62 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.46% from the previous value [6]. 3.5 Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - plate in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, is 1164 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [13]. 3.6 Fundamentals - Cost Side - The report mentions glass production profit but does not provide specific data [15][16]. 3.7 Fundamentals - Production and Supply - The number of start - up float glass production lines nationwide is 222, with a start - up rate of 75%. The number of start - up production lines is at a historical low in the same period [22]. - The daily melting capacity of national float glass is 159,600 tons, with the production capacity at the lowest level in the same period in history and showing a stable recovery [24]. 3.8 Fundamentals - Demand - In June 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.634 million tons [28]. 3.9 Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 59.499 million weight boxes, a decrease of 3.87% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [41]. 3.10 Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, imports, exports, apparent supply, consumption, differences, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio [42].