大越期货豆粕早报-20250804

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - Bean Meal: The US soybean market is oscillating around the 1000-point mark, affected by the overall good weather in the US soybean-producing areas and technical consolidation. In the domestic market, the high volume of imported soybeans arriving in July and the weak spot price are suppressing the bean meal market. It is expected to return to a range-bound pattern, with the M2509 contract oscillating between 2980 and 3040 [8]. - Soybeans: The US soybean market is affected by the weather and Sino-US trade negotiations, and is expected to oscillate around the 1000-point mark. In the domestic market, the increase in the arrival of imported soybeans and the expected increase in the production of new domestic soybeans are suppressing the market. However, the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand are providing support. The A2509 contract is expected to oscillate between 4080 and 4180 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - Bean Meal: Neutral. The market is affected by the weather in the US soybean-producing areas, the volume of imported soybeans, and Sino-US trade negotiations. The spot price is at a discount to the futures price, the inventory is increasing, the price is above the 20-day moving average, the main positions are increasing, and the market is expected to return to a range-bound pattern [8]. - Soybeans: Neutral. The market is affected by the weather in the US soybean-producing areas, the volume of imported soybeans, and Sino-US trade negotiations. The spot price is at a premium to the futures price, the inventory is increasing, the price is below the 20-day moving average but the direction is upward, the main positions are decreasing, and the market is expected to oscillate within a range [10]. 2. Recent News - The progress of Sino-US tariff negotiations is short-term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean planting weather is relatively good recently, and the US market is expected to oscillate around the 1000-point mark. - The volume of imported soybeans arriving in China in July remained high, and the inventory of bean meal in oil mills continued to rise. The weather in the US soybean-producing areas and Sino-US trade negotiations are in a critical period, and the bean meal market has returned to an oscillating pattern. - The decrease in the profit of domestic pig farming has led to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The recent increase in the demand for bean meal is supporting the price expectation, and the uncertainty of Sino-US trade negotiations has led the bean meal market to return to a range-bound pattern. - The inventory of bean meal in domestic oil mills continues to rise. The possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean-producing areas and the variables in the Sino-US tariff war are affecting the market. The bean meal market is expected to remain oscillating in the short term, waiting for the clarification of the South American soybean production and the follow-up of the Sino-US tariff war [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bean Meal Bullish Factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low inventory of bean meal in domestic oil mills, and potential weather variations in the US soybean-producing areas [13]. - Bean Meal Bearish Factors: High volume of imported soybeans arriving in July, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [13]. - Soybean Bullish Factors: Cost support from imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - Soybean Bearish Factors: Continuous expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest and the expected increase in the production of new domestic soybeans [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - Global Soybean Supply and Demand Balance Sheet: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, production, and total supply of soybeans generally showed an upward trend, while the inventory consumption ratio fluctuated [31]. - Domestic Soybean Supply and Demand Balance Sheet: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, production, and import volume of domestic soybeans generally increased, and the inventory consumption ratio also fluctuated [32]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the content