大越期货原油早报-20250804

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The significant downward revision of US non - farm payroll data has severely hit the financial market, causing a notable decline in oil prices. The OPEC+ meeting on the weekend decided to continue increasing production in September, completely canceling the previous 2.2 million barrels per day production cut, which restricts the subsequent upward space of oil prices. In the short term, crude oil will oscillate at a low level. Currently, most of the negative news has been released. In the future, attention should be paid to the implementation of US reciprocal tariffs during the week and the progress of Russia - Ukraine negotiations. There is a possibility that the US may impose sanctions on Russian energy, triggering a round of upward movement due to geopolitical concerns. The short - term trading range is between 510 - 515, and long - term investors can add positions on dips [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Fundamentals: US trade representative indicated that Trump's tariffs on dozens of countries may continue. US July employment growth was weaker than expected, and the non - farm payrolls of the previous two months were revised down by 258,000, increasing the possibility of a Fed rate cut in September. OPEC+ agreed to increase crude oil production by 547,000 barrels per day in September [3]. - Basis: On August 1st, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $73.99 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $73.06 per barrel. The basis was 18.53 yuan per barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price [3]. - Inventory: US API crude oil inventory for the week ending July 25th increased by 1.539 million barrels, against an expected decrease of 2.5 million barrels. EIA inventory for the same period increased by 7.698 million barrels, against an expected decrease of 1.288 million barrels. Cushing area inventory increased by 690,000 barrels. As of August 1st, Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained at 5.249 million barrels [3]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average was flat, and the price was above the average [3]. - Main Position: As of July 29th, the main positions of WTI and Brent crude oil were long, and the number of long positions increased [3]. - Expectation: Short - term trading range is 510 - 515, and long - term investors can add positions on dips [3]. 2. Recent News - OPEC+ reached an agreement at a video conference on Sunday to increase daily production by 547,000 barrels in September, marking the early completion of the exit from the 2.2 million barrels per day production cut plan implemented by eight member countries in 2023. The meeting lasted only 16 minutes. The organization will retain the option to re - evaluate the suspension of about 1.66 million barrels per day of production, depending on market conditions. OPEC+ has scheduled a follow - up meeting on September 7th [5]. - US President Trump's new round of tariffs on dozens of trading partners caused a global stock market crash on Friday. The new tariffs will take effect on August 7th at 04:01 GMT [5]. - US July employment growth was weaker than expected, with the non - farm payrolls of the previous two months revised down by 258,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.248%, the labor participation rate dropped to 62.2%, and the year - on - year wage increase remained at a high of 3.9% [5]. 3. Long - Short Concerns - Likely Positive Factors: The US may impose secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports, and summer demand is starting to increase [6]. - Likely Negative Factors: OPEC+ has increased production for three consecutive months, and the trade relationship between the US and other economies remains tense [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - Futures Market: The settlement prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, SC crude oil, and Oman crude oil decreased. The decline rates were - 2.83%, - 2.79%, - 0.73%, and - 2.81% respectively [7]. - Spot Market: The prices of UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman crude oil, Shengli crude oil, and Dubai crude oil all decreased, with decline rates ranging from - 1.87% to - 2.79% [9]. - Inventory Data: API and EIA inventories in the US increased in the week ending July 25th [3][10][13]. 5. Position Data - As of July 29th, the net long positions of WTI and Brent crude oil increased [3][17][18].